Final week, in Half 1 (discover it right here), we examined whether or not Google’s AI Overviews are literally altering how individuals use Search.
The info revealed that whereas customers go to Google extra steadily with AI Overviews, they:
- Spend much less time per go to.
- Aren’t crafting considerably longer or extra complicated queries.
Now we flip to an much more consequential query for the online ecosystem:
Is Google delivering its promise to “develop site visitors to the ecosystem” by means of AI Overviews?
This declare has been repeated by Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai in a number of boards:
- “Usually, we discover it’s each general rising utilization, and once we take a look at it 12 months on 12 months, now we have been capable of develop site visitors to the ecosystem.”1
- “Individuals are utilizing it to Search in totally new methods … and getting again the most effective the online has to supply.”2
For web site house owners, publishers, and content material creators, that is the million-dollar query.
Plus, if AI Overviews actually drive extra site visitors to the online, they characterize an evolution of Search.
But when they don’t drive extra site visitors to the online, they doubtlessly characterize a big disruption to the connection between Google and the open net.
Let’s study what the information really exhibits about site visitors patterns earlier than and after the introduction of AI Overviews.
As a reminder, I partnered with Similarweb to investigate over 5 billion search queries throughout a number of markets. And right here’s what this information set contains:
- Over 5 billion search queries and 20 million web sites.
- Common time on web site, searches per session, and visits per consumer on Google.com – each in complete and evaluating the UK, U.S., and Germany.
- A comparability of key phrases with and with out AI Overviews that analyzes searches per session, common time spent on Google, and zero-click share.
- Web page views and time spent on Google.com for key phrases exhibiting AI Overviews vs. key phrases with out AI Overviews.
- Common question size for the UK, US, and Germany.
Declare: We Have Been Ready To Develop Visitors To The Ecosystem
Knowledge from my evaluation exhibits this declare shouldn’t be appropriate.
In truth, my research reveals AIOs increase zero-click share from 72% → 76%.
Customers who go away Google do interact extra, as talked about in Half 1, however a bigger share of queries by no means “get again to the online.”
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigIt’s vital to pause right here.
Take a look at what number of key phrases (60% on the lowest level, proven by the black line above) result in zero-click searches, even when Google doesn’t present an AI Overview.
Many key phrases that grew in zero-clicks after AI Overviews formally launched in Might 2024 additionally had zero-clicks earlier than the launch.
However after the rollout, we see a transparent enhance in zero-clicks for AIO key phrases and a plateau in November 2024 at 76% (up from 71.4% in April 2024).
The share of zero-clicks additionally grew for non-AIO key phrases, which may be defined by SERP Options like Featured Snippets.
For instance, Semrush exhibits a transparent upward development for the variety of movies that present up for phrases Wikipedia, one of many largest websites on the internet, ranks for.
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigBecause of extra SERP options, the hole in zero-click share between key phrases exhibiting AIOs vs. not exhibiting AIOs has closed from 15.4% in Might 2024 to 11.4% in February 2025.
Right here’s one other instance that challenges Pichai and the Google crew’s claims:
Search queries with out AI Overviews end in twice as many pageviews as these with AI Overviews.
In that sense, AIOs ship much less site visitors to the ecosystem general, and it results in fewer pageviews. It is a dying blow for publishers who depend on advert impression quantity.
To be honest, one might argue in favor of Pichai’s level right here in that pageviews from AIO key phrases have grown 21.5% for the reason that rollout in Might 2024, in comparison with simply 1.3% progress for key phrases with out AI Overviews throughout the identical interval (till November ‘24, after which they drop).
So, you might take a look at that development and say, “Pageviews from AIO queries have grown,” however that omits quite a lot of vital context.
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigVerdict: These Claims Aren’t Telling The Full Reality – At Finest
In Half 1, I got here to the next conclusion:
After we study the information carefully, a transparent sample emerges: Google’s claims about AI Overviews basically altering how we search are largely overstated.
Sure, customers go to Google extra steadily, however they’re spending much less time per go to and never crafting considerably longer or extra complicated queries. This means AI Overviews are making a “fast reply” habits sample relatively than deeper engagement with search.
And Half 2 of my evaluation confirms that sample.
Sure, queries are creeping longer, and AIO-derived clicks are high-quality.
Nonetheless, zero-click progress contradicts the declare that AIO constantly sends extra site visitors “again to the online.”
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigThe rise in question size is incremental – not a wholesale shift to “totally new” habits – and elevated zero-click decision means many searches cease at Google relatively than reaching “the most effective the online has to supply.”
Be sure that to subscribe as a result of subsequent week, I’m publishing the first-ever AIO usability research to enrich the quantitative information I’ve revealed over the past 5 months with qualitative insights.
Let me inform you … it will change your mannequin of Search and LLM optimization.
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2 Google I/O 2024: An I/O for a brand new era
Featured Picture: Paulo Bobita/Search Engine Journal
