Methanol’s Shock Rise & Hydrogen’s Decline In Dutch Eventualities

August 18, 2025

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On the finish of my engagement with TenneT, the Netherlands’ transmission system operator, who I assisted with 2050 situation planning for his or her goal grid, I had the chance to sit down down with a few members of the workshops to debate our findings. What follows is a frivolously edited transcript of the second half of our dialog. The first half is out there right here.

I’d like so as to add a particular because of Johnny Nijenhuis of Nijenhuis Trucking Options within the Netherlands, who volunteered his podcast studio, mics, and sound enhancing for this.

Michael Barnard [MB]: Welcome again to a different episode of Redefining Power Tech. I’m your host, Michael Barnard. As at all times, we’re sponsored by TFIE Technique, which helps corporations, startups, and buyers spend large local weather motion cash quicker and extra correctly. That is the second half of my dialog with Emiel van Druten and Paul Martin concerning the Netherlands goal grid situation for 2050, which we labored on lately for every week. Emiel is a market vitality situation modeler for the Netherlands transmission operator Tennet, which introduced Paul and me in to help. Paul, in fact, is the founding father of Spitfire Analysis, a chemical engineer with many years of expertise designing and prototyping modular chemical course of crops for shoppers globally. He’s additionally co-founder of the Hydrogen Science Coalition.

I’ll be chatting with the top of Octopus’s constructing aspect within the UK on the seventeenth. He revealed one thing some time in the past referred to as Material fifth, which attracted numerous zeal from the Material First crowd. I’m speaking to him as a result of I revealed one thing very comparable a couple of weeks in the past and ticked off the same old suspects—the passive home crowd.

Paul Martin [PM]: It’s similar to the discussions you hear about electrical autos. You get the group that claims electrical autos aren’t sufficiently higher to make sufficient of a distinction, so we have now to revamp our cities, transfer everybody onto energetic and public transport, and depend on electrified high-density mass transit. And sure, we have now to do all of that.

However we additionally want electrical autos as a result of these modifications will take a very long time—seventy years and trillions of {dollars}. The identical is true with the constructed kind and cloth of buildings. You’re not going to knock all of them all the way down to grade or utterly intestine their interiors, insulate them, and exchange all of the home windows and doorways simply to transition away from soiled combustion heating. You’ll make these modifications when the time is correct and in ways in which make extra sense.

[MB]: Particularly as a result of induced demand is an element with constructing envelope enhancements. I checked out analysis from a number of continents over the previous 25 years. I had already identified concerning the UK examine of 55,000 houses, which discovered fuel utilization returned to precisely what it had been earlier than after two to 4 years. That was an excessive instance, however I additionally examined case research in North America and elsewhere. All of them discovered the identical sample. The most effective-case situation was solely a 50% discount in pure fuel use.

My thesis has at all times been electrify first, with cloth enhancements in help of electrification throughout the obtainable finances. That’s the place I stand, and that’s what we had been discussing on this context. It’s fascinating to observe these dynamics play out.

Emiel van Druten [EVD]: I wouldn’t go that far. Insulation does assist, as a result of it permits you to measurement your warmth pump a bit smaller and keep away from losing further capital on tools.

[MB]: However that’s for the finances. That’s the purpose. For the finances you do exactly sufficient to make it value electrifying.

[EVD]: Sure. You insulate your roof from the within. If in case you have an uninsulated cavity wall, add cavity wall insulation. Be sure to have underfloor insulation. That’s what you want—you don’t should placed on an entire new façade to realize that.

[MB]: I don’t care about that from my perspective, as a result of an individual can select to spend extra on vitality. What issues is that they’re utilizing electrical energy and low-carbon vitality.

[EVD]: On this house I’d like to say Warmth Geeks, a YouTube channel from the UK. They spend numerous time on this and lately expanded into the Netherlands with a department of their very own. They’ve installers, and so they run a course that teaches them the fundamentals. Those that full it get a label as Warmth Geek–permitted installers. Additionally they put metering on their warmth pumps and share the info on an open platform, heatmonitor.org, the place there’s even a leaderboard displaying who can create essentially the most environment friendly set up.

What they emphasize is that all of it comes all the way down to balancing three issues: the dimensions of your warmth pump, the constructing cloth, and the warmth switch capability. If these are in stability, you will have a superb design. That’s what you want. The present focus solely on cloth leaves a giant blind spot.

[MB]: And as we come again to the situation planning, there’s loads to drag aside, nevertheless it was a extremely good course of. The PESTEL [Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal] method was a strong framework. Cross-societal enter from DSOs [distribution system operators], the transmission system operator, the fuel transmission operator, and trade teams had been all a part of it. However our reflection was that there was parochialism and siloing in among the contributions. Business would say, “Right here’s what we’re doing,” and that was it. Essentially the most hanging instance was a agency that, when requested to contemplate 4 situations, mentioned, “You need me to do one thing for these 4 situations? Effectively, that is the one factor I’m going to do.” And that’s precisely what they delivered.

[PM]: “We’re rising in all 4. Yeah, we’re rising in all 4. That’s the one one we’re going to contemplate.” You possibly can perceive why they are saying it, however you don’t imagine them.

[EVD]: That’s really a bit like what we heard from Tata Metal. They mentioned, “It doesn’t matter what the world appears to be like like, we’re going to do hydrogen DRI in all situations, in all storylines.” We confirmed you their inexperienced metal plan. They’ve a two-phase method. Proper now they function two large blast furnaces, and so they additionally pollute the neighboring village, so there’s numerous scrutiny. They wish to clear up their act.

Their plan is to first tear down one blast furnace and exchange it with DRI—direct discount of iron—operating on pure fuel with CCS. That feeds into the DRI unit. After that, they will make virgin metal from iron ore and soften it in an electrical arc furnace.

The second section shifts to inexperienced hydrogen DRI, after which by 2040 or later, they wish to convert the primary unit to totally inexperienced hydrogen as properly. The image then is 2 DRIs on inexperienced hydrogen and electrical arc furnaces operating alongside.

The query we requested was whether or not this is smart—not simply as a know-how, however right here within the Netherlands, provided that offshore wind is already being pushed fairly far out, 200 kilometers at 50 meters depth, which is changing into costlier. Does it make sense to do it right here?

[MB]: The very first thing to know about Tata Metal is that it’s a specialty metal producer producing high-end metal. It ships product everywhere in the world for premium purposes, together with specialty alloys. It’s most likely one of many highest-margin segments attainable, nevertheless it’s not positioned properly for minimizing prices. Sturdy high line, mediocre backside line.

The second level is that Paul and I’ve each been digging into metal for years. I’ve constructed a metal projection by means of 2100 and lately revised the demand profile. China is dealing with declining cement demand as infrastructure build-out slows, and alongside that comes declining metal demand for infrastructure and buildings. About 50% of all metal goes into buildings. As constructing demand falls, so does metal demand. That’s not high-value metal—it’s largely rebar—nevertheless it’s numerous quantity.

The identical dynamic that drives cement demand down will drive metal demand down. China accounts for half of whole international manufacturing and demand for each, so its trajectory pulls the entire market. On the similar time, scrapping is rising. China is shifting towards scrap-based metal. Europe is lastly ending the export of 20 million tons a 12 months and transferring towards extra scrap recycling and electrical arc furnaces, aligning extra with the US. And right here I’ll give my uncommon plug for the U.S.—70% of its metal has been made with electrical arc furnaces since 2000. That’s the course the world is heading.

[EVD]: So your level is we want much less virgin metal.

[MB]: We’d like much less virgin metal. We’d like the specialty metal. And Tata is properly positioned for the specialty metal, nevertheless it’s not going to be made with hydrogen.

[PM]: And the Netherlands is the flawed place for direct iron discount utilizing inexperienced hydrogen. Will probably be cheaper to do it elsewhere on the earth, so we don’t see that second section taking place.

[EVD]: However the first section, what was your opinion on it?

[PM]: The primary section already assumes carbon seize and storage, with huge funding going into it. Feed it inexperienced methane, biogenic methane—there’s sufficient of that obtainable—and use CCS to make it carbon detrimental. Don’t hassle with pure hydrogen DRI. It primarily turns into an ordinary direct iron discount unit, which has been in manufacturing for many years in lots of locations world wide. You simply change the feedstock and apply CCS to the manufacturing emissions. That appears fairly cheap.

As for section two, if it occurs, it should possible imply constructing electrical arc furnaces within the Netherlands, however feeding them with direct discount pellets produced elsewhere on the earth, the place vitality prices are decrease and there aren’t competing prospects for electrical energy.

[EVD]: So it solely is smart to have an electrical arc furnace and feed it a mixture of scrap and imported inexperienced iron.

[PM]: Yeah, or scorching briquetted.

[EVD]: Yeah, no matter. Doesn’t matter.

[PM]: No matter comes subsequent, you produce it in components of the world that may do it at low price as a result of they don’t have prospects for electrical energy—which isn’t the case within the Netherlands. If the Netherlands ever has giant quantities of extra renewable electrical energy, there’s a prepared market in Germany and neighboring international locations. That units a flooring value as a result of there’s at all times an export choice.

In locations like Chile or Western Australia, there are not any prospects for that electrical energy and no export market. The price is just no matter it takes to supply it. That’s why they flip to DRI, ammonia manufacturing, or comparable pathways—to monetize the energetic asset they’re producing. These are the areas the place this might be least costly, although nonetheless expensive in comparison with what we’re used to.

[EVD]: There’s a superb examine by Tom Brown and Fabian Neumann from TU Berlin on Europe’s vitality import place in a decarbonized future. They present that producing virgin metal in Europe is the most costly choice. Ammonia will be accomplished, notably in locations like Spain, however virgin metal is by far the toughest factor to supply competitively inside Europe.

[MB]: Effectively, doing something with hydrogen that you simply don’t should do with hydrogen is at all times the most costly solution to do one thing.

[PM]: Proper. And it’s necessary to make a transparent distinction. Folks wish to oversimplify and use neat labels, however cease calling it inexperienced metal. What we’re actually speaking about is the iron discount portion, separate from the metal manufacturing portion. Electrical arc furnaces are already at Expertise Readiness Degree 9. In the US—which has its personal struggles acknowledging local weather change and coping with it from a coverage perspective—electrical arc furnaces dominate merely for price causes.

So the steelmaking half is already electrical, and it’s cheap to anticipate it should proceed with out a lot problem. The true challenge is iron discount, which is the place these firms are focusing their efforts.

[EVD]: Eighty % of the vitality demand is in iron discount. The arc furnace is only a small portion.

[PM]: Precisely. However that iron discount goes to occur in components of the world the place it is smart. Metal manufacturing, then again, though it isn’t the most important vitality shopper, is the place the labor is, the place the roles are, and the place native market provide issues. You don’t wish to ship giant structural metal members lengthy distances when you can keep away from it. The identical goes for lower-value merchandise like rebar—you need them going straight from manufacturing to make use of with minimal transshipping.

So it makes logical sense to maintain steelmaking native however transfer iron discount to locations the place it may be accomplished at scale and at decrease price.

[MB]: I’d characterize it a bit in another way. A number of applied sciences for brand new metal are rising. DRI with hydrogen isn’t TRL9. DRI with biomethane is TRL9—it’s already being accomplished right this moment. If in case you have giant sources of waste biomass producing anthropogenic biomethane, you may put that into biodigesters, generate inexperienced methane, and feed it into the DRI system.

One factor I discovered is that the direct discount course of is exothermic, a lot of the method warmth comes from the chemical response itself. You solely want so as to add about 20 to 25% of the warmth. With hydrogen, although, you need to present the entire warmth for the DRI, which makes hydrogen DRI even much less economically viable.

[PM]: It’s really an space the place I’m consulting with folks on high-temperature industrial heating accomplished electrically. Within the standard course of utilizing synthesis fuel made out of methane, the carbon monoxide–iron oxide reactions are exothermic and stability the hydrogen–iron oxide reactions, that are endothermic. The result’s a course of that’s virtually thermally impartial.

In case you change to pure hydrogen, you need to add numerous electrical heating. And this isn’t heating at a few hundred levels Celsius—it’s heating at round 900 levels Celsius. That’s not simple. It’s attainable, however very difficult.

[MB]: The champagne of hydrogen for the warmth.

[PM]: The DRI guys aren’t even occupied with that. In case you’re doing pure hydrogen DRI, you’re doing electrical heating—that’s a certainty.

[MB]: As we went by means of this, one of many conclusions we reached—together with representatives from different organizations—was that we don’t see a job for hydrogen in metal. Within the Netherlands, there’s a chance for inexperienced methane by capturing biomethane emissions and making use of carbon seize to create negative-emissions specialty metal. That’s what Tata can pursue.

Anywhere on the earth with important waste biomass and a CCS alternative has the potential to make negative-emissions metal, which is an actual benefit.

[PM]: And if CCS isn’t obtainable, and it’s biogenic, simply vent the CO2. It’s not the top of the world.

[MB]: We’ve eradicated the methane drawback—the anthropogenic biomethane from waste biomass—and turned that methane into an economically helpful product..

[EVD]: And that is only for section one. When you’ve used up your potential inexperienced methane finances, if you wish to do extra, you merely import intermediate inexperienced iron. That was additionally our conclusion for the opposite industrial sector.

[PM]: Appropriate.

[EVD]: We went by means of all of them. Take fertilizer. We now have a giant fertilizer trade right here as a result of we had low-cost pure fuel. That meant low-cost grey hydrogen—or different “colours,” blacker than black. With low-cost pure fuel, we may produce numerous ammonia. However that gained’t be the case sooner or later. Spain, Morocco, Australia—these might be a lot better areas to make inexperienced hydrogen and ammonia. And ammonia is straightforward to ship in comparison with hydrogen. So if we wish to maintain fertilizer, that’s the context we’re coping with.

[MB]: You wish to use ammonia as a feedstock, largely for fertilizer or explosives. Sure. However as an import for vitality, no. As a service for hydrogen, no.

[EVD]: So what we concluded is that if we wish to maintain the fertilizer trade, it should import ammonia straight and use it to make fertilizer. The identical applies to chemical compounds—no artificial gas manufacturing.

There have been numerous concepts within the situations, together with direct air seize and artificial fuels for the chemical trade utilizing inexperienced hydrogen. However the consensus was clear: this gained’t work, and if it does work anyplace on the earth, it undoubtedly gained’t be within the Netherlands.

That mentioned, there are home sources value utilizing—waste plastic and waste biomass that may be gasified. As Rainier defined, you may gasify that and produce methanol, which may then be transformed to olefins. Olefins are the bottom chemical compounds for a lot of high-end merchandise. We now have a big plastics sector with many high-end jobs, and we should always maintain that sector—however with out pursuing artificial fuels.

[MB]: I’d say methanol was the shock winner for me out of this week. That is the primary time I’ll say it publicly—although I did point out it as soon as on LinkedIn. Biologically sourced methanol might be going to be the transport gas of the long run.

[PM]: To place it the way in which I did through the discussions: the choices for long-distance transoceanic transport and aviation are all poor. They’re all costly, all restricted in feedstock to some extent, and tied up in food-versus-fuel issues. There are additionally nationwide and worldwide points that come up when creating international locations begin exporting issues like palm oil. It’s a giant, messy, disagreeable drawback.

However from a chemical engineer’s perspective, if you evaluate aviation fuels and transport fuels, one thing turns into clear. Aviation requires a really particular suite of molecules—a slender composition that should be met. Nobody goes to construct a brand new technology of plane engines designed for one thing else when airframes final greater than 20 years. That constraint is immovable. Proper now, gas is about 20% of an airline ticket’s price, which suggests there’s room for the airline trade to pay extra for decarbonized gas.

That’s not the case in transport. For transport, gas accounts for round 40% of working price per ton-mile.

[EVD]: Transport is a bit like trucking—it’s low margin.

[PM]: They will’t afford a selected molecule, and because of this, no matter components of transport can’t electrify—which can already drive prices down—will simply have to simply accept what’s obtainable. And what’s obtainable is methanol. They might additionally use ammonia, however that will kill folks. I’m not on board with fixing local weather change by killing folks simply to save lots of a buck, as a result of that’s actually what we’re speaking about. Ammonia is off the desk for security causes—any chemical engineer who understands the fundamentals of security and design would attain that conclusion. You’d should be seduced by some huge cash to suppose in any other case.

That leaves transport with methanol, whereas aviation takes the easier-to-convert feedstocks. For instance, vegetable oils that may be hydrotreated and hydrocracked to the precise gas composition.

[EVD]: It really took us a very long time to achieve a conclusion, and at first folks weren’t totally understanding one another. To get there, we needed to map the whole lot out on a giant whiteboard and ask: what can we even have right here?

We recognized three primary types of bioenergy to begin with. First, fatty oils like vegetable oils and used cooking oil. Second, common biomass and waste streams that may be gasified to make methanol as a place to begin or intermediate, which may also be imported. Third, ethanol from sources like corn or sugarcane. The EU isn’t supportive of ethanol for fuels due to the food-versus-fuel challenge, in order that choice is off the desk.

That left the opposite two. Methanol will be burned straight in ships, which is simple. It may also be transformed to olefins after which olefins to kerosene for aviation. However even then, you may already see what number of steps are concerned.

[PM]: Too many—far too many steps.

[EVD]: It’s going to drive prices up. With fatty oils, you should utilize a hydrotreatment course of with hydrogen and steer it in several instructions. You can also make extra HVO biodiesel or one thing nearer to heavy gas oil for ships, or you may steer it towards largely kerosene for sustainable aviation gas. That course of will be adjusted pretty simply, and kerosene is essentially the most logical consequence.

The provision is restricted, but when that is the most affordable route for aviation, aviation will merely outprice transport. That was our conclusion—and that’s when Michael flipped his place.

[MB]: That was the change that did it for me. We now have this restricted quantity of feedstock, and it’s the most affordable choice that can work for aviation.

[EVD]: It’s the most affordable choice for everybody, however for aviation the second-best different is such a giant step down.

[MB]: For aviation, they want the top product that’s best to make from that feedstock, so that they’ll pay greater than transport can for HVO. Transport gained’t have the ability to compete on value. As soon as I understood the financial value sign and the advantage order between these choices, I noticed there isn’t sufficient to go round—even in my projections, which already present a major discount in maritime transport and a a lot flatter trajectory for aviation.

That has an necessary corollary. I already challenge 100% electrification of inland transport and virtually all short-sea transport, with hybridization for transoceanic transport. Electrons are going to be less expensive than biomethanol as an vitality service.

As quickly as hybridization takes maintain and batteries turn into dust low-cost, ships will begin utilizing bigger batteries to increase their vary and optimize prices. That results in a major improve in electrical energy demand from the transport section. Within the nationwide situation, we went from 2% of electrical energy for transport and aviation to 12% by 2050. And that’s not an endpoint—that’s merely how a lot may transition inside that timeframe.

[EVD]: And that 12% is especially from short-haul flights inside Europe, which can electrify first. The attention-grabbing half with methanol is that at the start of the session I requested you about long-haul transoceanic transport and whether or not you noticed potential for battery electrification there. You mentioned perhaps 2% in the long run. However when you realized ships gained’t run on HVO and as an alternative on methanol, which is costlier, then perhaps it’s not 2% in the long run. Perhaps it’s 10%, 20%, even 30%—we simply don’t know.

[PM]: However larger, and I utterly agree. I feel many individuals don’t notice how sturdy the motive force might be for extending electrification in each transport and aviation as soon as the very important price will increase hit for something even remotely low-GHG. Biomass pathways will be labeled low-GHG by definition, however on a lifecycle foundation they aren’t actually that low right this moment. That highlights a significant drawback we have now to unravel—decarbonizing agriculture—as a result of we have to eat, and if we intend to make use of agricultural waste residues as fuels, they have to really be low-GHG. However we have now to decarbonize agriculture anyway, no matter fuels.

So we find yourself fixing a number of issues on the similar time. The financial stress to impress will push issues additional than anticipated. I feel all of us strongly agree that every one land transport—something with wheels—goes electrical.

[EVD]: That was already in our baseline situation, aside from vehicles, the place 10% had been assumed to be hydrogen. We requested if that made sense, and the reply was no. Even the final 10% will go electrical. So 100% of vehicles go electrical.

Right this moment we’re recording this podcast at Johnny Nijenhuis’s, who’s an advisor on electrical vehicles. He’s been saying the identical factor for years: no diesel vehicles might be bought after 2035. Early on he checked out each hydrogen and batteries, however he rapidly realized it might solely be batteries for the whole lot on wheels, together with heavy vehicles. Folks typically say heavy transport is difficult to decarbonize, however when you have a look at transport, the larger the ship, the bigger its carrying capability. Which means the most important ships are literally the simplest to decarbonize, for the reason that batteries solely take up 1–3% of the ship’s quantity and weight.

The problem isn’t technical—it’s financial. These batteries price billions of euros, making it a capex drawback moderately than an engineering one.

[MB]: The 2022 examine revealed in Nature by Berkeley Lab—which I’ve mentioned with two of the three researchers—principally concluded that with battery costs at $100 per kilowatt-hour, it’s the fee, not the mass or the quantity, that turns into the constraining issue.

[PM]: It’s {dollars} per kilowatt-hour that drive transport’s electrification, and it’s vitality density per unit mass and quantity that drives aviation.

Each of these are bettering—steadily bettering—however not quick sufficient to say with 100% certainty that by 2050 we gained’t nonetheless be constructing ships crossing the Pacific on combustion fuels. I feel we’ll nonetheless see a considerable variety of methanol-burning ships.

[MB]: Completely. My view now could be that the top state will possible be Atlantic transport going 100% electrical, and probably making it 50% of the way in which throughout the Pacific. These are very lengthy hauls, however ships might be maximizing electron use by means of hybridization.

[EVD]: And also you’re rather more bullish than the sector. You speak to them, and we additionally spoke with folks on the Port of Rotterdam. They actually don’t see this taking place at that scale. They’re putting in megawatt chargers now, however they name it shore energy—only for stationary ships, maintaining home equipment operating whereas docked. They haven’t realized but that ships themselves might be powered by batteries, and that it’s going to be large.

As each the TSO and the DSO in that area, we have now to begin planning for it as a result of will probably be important. I feel it should observe the identical path as vehicles. When Johnny began speaking about large electrical vehicles 10 years in the past, and Auke Hoekstra mentioned they might occur, everybody dismissed them as fools who didn’t know what they had been speaking about. However they really did the numbers and proved it labored. Everybody who mentioned it couldn’t be accomplished, that it was too heavy, was simply talking from intestine feeling.

The identical factor will occur with transport. In 5 years folks will say, “Keep in mind when Michael and Emiel mentioned on that podcast that transport can be battery-electric?” And by then everybody might be buying electrical ships.

[MB]: It’s like we had been speaking about mining earlier with Fortescue. They’ve put about $3 billion into electrified heavy mining tools, changing the whole lot within the mines, together with large bulldozers and dump vehicles that dwarf a human. That’s a transparent signal of the place we’re heading.

Each so-called hard-to-electrify transportation sector is being knocked off one after the other. And everybody who says it will possibly’t probably be electrified is being confirmed flawed, one after the other. I simply see that as inevitable.

[PM]: The financial driver is basically clear, and it’s not nearly working expense for vitality. There are lots of different benefits. We don’t must beat that time to demise. However one space we hadn’t totally mentioned was what to do about supplies and chemical compounds.

[MB]: Earlier than we get into that, I simply wish to say one very last thing. I left Thursday afternoon beaming as a result of I’ve had a heterodox projection of worldwide hydrogen demand declining for years. I’ve been the one one asserting it’s happening whereas everybody else has been saying it’s going up.

[EVD]: Michael Liebreich’s situations say hydrogen demand goes up. And the Netherlands does use numerous grey hydrogen in trade due to its historical past—large chemical fertilizer manufacturing and heavy refinery use, particularly for desulfurization. In most situations, the projection is for much more.

However after we did the numbers and checked out every particular person sector, asking what actually is smart, we ended up with hydrogen solely in refineries and in biorefineries, which we’ll get to in a minute. That remaining hydrogen demand doesn’t improve in comparison with right this moment—it decreases.

In our situation, hydrogen demand decreases by 80%, largely as a result of we lose the ammonia trade.

Not for transport—there’s no transport software—and we additionally lose ammonia for electrical energy technology backup, since we have now inexperienced fuel as an alternative.

[MB]: Not for inexperienced metal or inexperienced iron. Throughout all these demand sectors, the one two main progress areas I projected for hydrogen had been inexperienced iron—40 million tons per 12 months by 2100—and hydro-treating biofuels, at about 4 million tons.

[PM]: Effectively, let’s be clear—the Netherlands isn’t going to be making that inexperienced hydrogen. It’s going to come from some place else.

[EVD]: Yeah, we’ll import intermediates like ammonia or inexperienced iron. However we’re not going to import hydrogen as liquid hydrogen or something like that. What we labored out is that the quantity of hydrogen we want will be provided with 3 gigawatts of electrolysis. And whereas that appears like loads, the situation had greater than 30.

[MB]: That was being beneficiant about electrolysis. I don’t suppose we want that many.

[EVD]: However within the situation you proposed, there have been over 20 gigawatts of offshore hydrogen manufacturing. Paul, you even talked a few chemical plant offshore.

[PM]: I’m nonetheless scratching my head at how anybody of their proper thoughts thinks they’re going to save cash on cables by constructing electrolyzers offshore to pump hydrogen. On no degree does that make sense. I used to be very glad to see that concept dropped as a result of it’s pure fantasy, disconnected from financial actuality. You don’t construct issues offshore when you can construct them onshore—you simply don’t. And also you definitely don’t do it to save lots of on cables. That’s nuts.

[MB]: Yeah, I do know. So let’s pivot again—we’ve solely received a couple of minutes left. Let’s flip to the chemical trade, Paul’s raison d’être.

[PM]: I feel lots of people imagine we have now to transition away from utilizing petroleum for something. I’ve by no means been one in every of them. If we’re wise about end-of-life use of supplies and chemical compounds, we are able to proceed making them from petroleum—and we are going to, as a result of it’s the most affordable solution to do it.

Now, to be clear, the price of doing so—utterly electrifying a refinery, eliminating gas fuel, and discovering other ways to deal with waste merchandise from refining steps with low GHG emissions—is technically attainable however very costly. Nonetheless, it’s trivial in comparison with making an attempt to make use of biomass. Biomass has a excessive oxygen content material that has to depart as both CO2 or water, with important vitality losses.

The chance of transferring from petroleum, which already has carbons and hydrogens within the proportions we want, to biomass, which comes with extra oxygen we don’t want, may be very low. Our situation planning ended with methanol produced in two methods. One is for olefins to make chemical compounds and supplies. That may come from the non-biogenic portion of waste supplies, together with waste plastics—although points with components, contaminants, and heteroatoms in plastics are very actual and have to be handled. If that’s solved, waste can present a part of the methanol provide.

The methanol utilized in ships and different combustion purposes might be biogenic and largely imported.

[MB]: And for the fossil gas trade right here, about 15% will persist, however just for petrochemicals, not for something that’s burned. There’s one other key consequence that impacts hydrogen demand. As we transfer right into a world the place we’re not burning large quantities of fossil fuels, oil demand gained’t require refining the dirtiest feedstocks—like heavy, high-sulfur crude from Alberta, Mexico, and Venezuela.

[EVD]: Oils that require numerous hydrogen for desulfurization.

[MB]: I did the mathematics on it, and a Schlumberger individual confirmed the numbers. It’s about 7.7 kilos of hydrogen per barrel of Alberta’s oil, in comparison with 2.3 kilos per barrel of sunshine candy crude. That lighter crude is what might be flowing into Rotterdam on tankers and feeding the petrochemical trade. It gained’t be an enormous hydrogen demand space.

[EVD]: The idea you proposed was that per barrel of oil, hydrogen use for desulfurization can be minimize roughly in half as a result of we’d begin with cleaner crude. As soon as we completed working by means of refineries and chemical compounds, we had all demand sectors lined, together with trade. On the final day of the workshop, we balanced it out—particularly electrical energy demand. We had larger demand in aviation, transport, and to some extent households, however we eliminated numerous electrolyzers and direct air seize. The online outcome was a major discount in electrical energy demand in comparison with the beginning assumptions.

We started with a situation the place electrical energy demand was anticipated to develop fivefold relative to right this moment. The place we ended up was three-and-a-half to fourfold progress. That reshaped the availability aspect focus. We concluded that not all offshore wind and nuclear can be wanted to fulfill demand. Photo voltaic and onshore wind ought to keep, since they’re least expensive. Far-offshore, deepwater wind turns into costly, and nuclear is the most costly and never cost-optimal. The view was that nuclear may very well be pursued if authorities insisted, however it might be restricted in scale. As for offshore wind, the capability devoted to offshore electrolysis was minimize, leaving 50 gigawatts out of 70.

Initially it was a internet electricity-importing situation to make molecules and export them once more. That didn’t make sense. With a big North Sea, the Netherlands ought to be an exporter of electrons to neighbors like southern Germany, which lacks ample home capability to decarbonize its financial system. From a equity perspective, sharing that benefit is smart. So with 50 gigawatts of offshore wind, the Netherlands may very well be roughly internet impartial. With 55 gigawatts, it may export tens of terawatt-hours to its neighbors—which feels truthful.

That’s the place we ended up on the availability aspect.

[MB]: Ultimately, hydrogen demand plummets. No nuclear. And all of this was based mostly on the economics. We’re on the finish of the hour and a half, and it’s been a terrific dialogue. I at all times go away time for an open-ended statement from my company—one thing they’d wish to share with the viewers. So why don’t we begin with Paul and shut with Emiel. Paul, what open-ended thought would you share with the viewers at this level?

[PM]: I’d simply say that Canada is ripe for this sort of evaluation, and it must occur sooner moderately than later. Being a federation of provinces, there’s numerous regional variation. But when we may do one thing like this—mannequin it correctly and get critical about our path ahead—we’d be a lot additional forward in our decarbonization journey. I’d like to see it occur.

[MB]: Effectively, simply as I’m aiding the Netherlands and Eire, I’ve additionally been requested to assist with one thing an government I do know—who’s properly related—is making an attempt to provoke for Canada. I’ve already accomplished a 2050 decarbonized Sankey for Canada, so hopefully that can evolve into one thing the place I can really be a prophet with honor in my own residence.

[PM]: I hope so.

[MB]: Emiel, Open ended.

[EVD]: I’ve a shout-out that may assist reply your query. It’s a software we used throughout our course of: the open-source web site energytransitionmodel.com. It’s an open-source vitality mannequin the place you may alter every subsector. We used it throughout our workshop as a result of it’s the identical mannequin we use for our situations. You possibly can go into the trade subsector—say, metal—change the assumptions, and inside seconds the mannequin recalculates the complete vitality system on an hourly foundation. It then updates the outcomes and graphs for that sector and the entire financial system. It was numerous enjoyable to make use of.

We’ve been working with that mannequin for years and know all of the positive particulars, however I may see that you simply hadn’t seen it earlier than and but discovered it intuitive—simply making modifications and seeing what occurs. All European international locations are included within the mannequin, and different TSOs in Europe are beginning to undertake it. So perhaps you would ask them to construct a Canada mannequin.

[MB]: That will be good. This has been Redefining Power Tech. I’m your host, Michael Barnard. My company right this moment have been Paul Martin and Emiel van Druten. We’ve simply spent every week serving to Tennet, the transmission system operator within the Netherlands, work out what 2050 goes to appear to be. And I’ll simply say—it’s rather more electrified than even they anticipated. Till subsequent time, thanks.

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