For a quick second, it regarded like a federal commerce court docket would halt President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, leaving everybody to surprise what that would imply for value hikes. However by the top of the next day one other court docket had stepped in so we’re again to questioning when and if reciprocal tariffs and Trump’s proposed 25% Apple tariff will kick in. So you may forgive us if we do not sound very sure about how all of this might have an effect on the worth of the brand new iPhone.
We won’t even assure that it is going to be referred to as iPhone 17, contemplating Apple might rebrand its working system this fall in order that the present iOS18 is changed by iOS 26.
Apple spent a lot of the early a part of this 12 months dodging tariffs, stockpiling telephones earlier than tariffs took impact and making an exemption listing for a lot of of its merchandise. However its luck appeared to expire after Apple CEO Tim Prepare dinner introduced throughout a Could 1 earnings name that US iPhone manufacturing would largely be sourced from India. A couple of weeks later, Trump threatened Apple with a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outdoors the US.Â
Is that tariff on high of the paused reciprocal tariffs? Whereas it might be unrealistic for Apple to move alongside the full price of the tariff to shoppers (who’s going to purchase a $4,000 iPhone?), it additionally appears unlikely that the tech big may take up the prices of a 170% tariff hike (that is 25% Apple tariff + 145% reciprocal tariff on China, the place Apple has produced most of its iPhones).Â
Plus, there are many components that may have an effect on the worth of an iPhone, together with manufacturing prices and the general well being of the US economic system. My colleague Patrick Holland has been reviewing telephones for CNET since 2016 and monitoring costs over time. He says the new iPhone is due for a value hike no matter what occurs with tariffs.
Apple didn’t reply to a request for remark for an earlier model of this story.Â
We cannot know the precise value for the subsequent iPhone till its launch, which is anticipated to be in September. However we have pored over all of the leaks, rumors and predictions about costs and we discovered methods that can assist you save if a brand new iPhone is in your future.
Learn extra: Need to Purchase a New iPhone? Now’s Not the Time and Here is Why
How tariffs may have an effect on the price of the subsequent iPhone
Amid Trump’s ongoing tariff bender, larger reciprocal tariffs are at present on pause. Nevertheless, Trump took to social media on Could 28, threatening Apple with a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outdoors the US, though the timeline is unclear. There’s at present a ten% baseline tariff on all imports and a 30% tariff on items from China, the place Apple nonetheless manufactures most of its merchandise. These charges can also begin to rise in July when the preliminary tariff pause expires, which may result in larger costs on every thing — together with the rumored iPhone 17.Â
The tech big has moved some US iPhone manufacturing from China to India, which at present has a decrease tariff charge. Nevertheless, Trump referred to as out Apple CEO Tim Prepare dinner to as an alternative transfer iPhone manufacturing to the US. Most specialists think about this an unrealistic demand, particularly within the brief time period, due to larger labor and manufacturing prices within the US. Estimates have instructed {that a} US-made iPhone would price as a lot as $3,500.
That leaves costs for the subsequent iPhone in limbo. Trump’s administration referred to as the exemption listing “short-term” in early April, saying that exemptions would finish in “a month or two.” Across the similar time, Trump stated that semiconductors, which energy tech merchandise, will finally be positioned in a special “tariff bucket.” Nevertheless, no particulars have been shared in regards to the timeline or anticipated tariff percentages.
With all of the reprieves showing to be short-term, tariffs may nonetheless doubtlessly have an effect on costs by the point the rumored iPhone 17 is anticipated to be launched.
If the unique reciprocal tariff pause expires, for example, taxes on imports from India would rise from 10% to 26% beginning in July. If the 90-day pause for China expires, tariffs on that nation would leap from 30% to 145% in August. It is unclear if Apple’s 25% tariff could be along with or as an alternative of particular person nations’ import duties.
Consultants level out {that a} tariff charge hike does not essentially imply an iPhone’s value would improve on the similar charge however most count on no less than some influence.
And the place the cellphone is assembled is just a part of the tariff equation. Apple sources elements for the iPhone from dozens of different nations, which may additionally doubtlessly have an effect on the worth.
Based mostly on the place tariffs stand now, this is how a lot you can doubtlessly pay for the subsequent iPhone primarily based on present iPhone 16 costs. These are our estimates and never official pricing from Apple:
Potential iPhone value with reciprocal tariffs
| Present value | Present 10% tariff on items from India | Potential 26% tariff for India | Present 30% tariff on items from China | Potential 145% tariff for China | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 16E (128GB) | $599 | $659 | $755 | $779 | $1,468 |
| iPhone 16 (128GB) | $829 | $912 | $1,045 | $1,078 | $2,031 |
| iPhone 16 Plus (128GB) | $929 | $1,022 | $1,171 | $1,208 | $2,276 |
| iPhone 16 Professional (128GB) | $999 | $1,099 | $1,259 | $1,299 | $2,448 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (256GB) | $1,199 | $1,319 | $1,511 | $1,559 | $2,938 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (1TB) | $1,599 | $1,759 | $2,015 | $2,079 | $3,918 |
If the 25% Apple tariff takes impact, this is the potential value improve for a brand new iPhone, primarily based on the present iPhone 16 costs. Once more, Apple is unlikely to boost costs at a 1-to-1 charge with tariff hikes however this desk incorporates reciprocal and potential Apple particular tariffs to calculate potential costs:
Potential iPhone costs with reciprocal and Apple tariffs mixed
| Present value | Present 10% tariff on items from India | Potential 26% tariff for India | Present 30% tariff on items from China | Potential 145% tariff for China | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 16E (128GB) | $599 | $809 | $904 | $928 | $1,617 |
| iPhone 16 (128GB) | $829 | $1,119 | $1,252 | $1,285 | $2,238 |
| iPhone 16 Plus (128GB) | $929 | $1,254 | $1,403 | $1,440 | $2,508 |
| iPhone 16 Professional (128GB) | $999 | $1,349 | $1,508 | $1,548 | $2,697 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (256GB) | $1,199 | $1,619 | $1,810 | $1,858 | $3,237 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (1TB) | $1,599 | $2,159 | $2,414 | $2,478 | $4,317 |
What else may trigger the brand new iPhone’s value to extend?
Trump instantly criticized retailers like Amazon and Walmart after they instructed that tariffs may end in larger costs so it stands to motive that Apple will not instantly blame tariffs for potential value hikes that would provoke a Trump tirade.Â
Somewhat, Apple may attribute the worth improve to improved options and design prices. No matter tariffs, Apple has plans to boost iPhone costs this 12 months, The Wall Avenue Journal reported.Â
Consultants say Apple could also be overdue for a value improve anyway. It has been 5 years because the primary iPhone mannequin elevated in value and every iteration of the iPhone typically improves on options from the earlier model.Â
Holland notes that the bottom iPhone mannequin hasn’t gone up in value since 2020. His analysis factors to the usual iPhone mannequin’s value growing roughly each 5 years, between $50 and $130. Based mostly on this proof and the iPhone 16’s present value of $829, we may count on the brand new iPhone to price someplace between $879 and $959.
What’s going to the iPhone 17 Air price?
Early rumors had the iPhone 17 Air topping the iPhone Professional in value. Nevertheless, a March Bloomberg report instructed the cellphone may price about $900, much like the present iPhone 16 Plus’s price ticket. These estimates are primarily based on the present prices and will not embody the potential influence tariffs may have on an ultrathin iPhone’s value.
How the economic system may have an effect on iPhone costs
Uncertainty within the US economic system — partly due to the aforementioned tariff turmoil — has left many cautious about what’s to come back. Whereas the current settlement with China to pause tariffs helped the inventory market to largely recuperate from the dive it took after Trump’s Liberation Day, that reprieve presents solely short-term aid.Â
Considerations in regards to the dangers of upper unemployment and better inflation have left the Federal Reserve in wait-and-see mode for decreasing rates of interest. Increased rates of interest may cause firms like Apple to tug again on spending and funding. Mixed with larger tariffs, that pullback may doubtlessly result in world provide chain disruptions. Fewer iPhones accessible out there may result in larger costs.
If inflation resurges, rising prices may power Apple to extend the subsequent iPhone’s value.
One tiny brilliant facet, in principle, is {that a} weakening economic system may power Apple to carry off on elevating costs so it could actually keep aggressive. However that won’t provide a lot comfort should you’re fearful about spending cash due to a possible recession.Â
Will older iPhones price extra, too?
One method to save on Apple merchandise is to purchase final 12 months’s mannequin as an alternative of the most recent launch. Nevertheless, if the brand new iPhone is dramatically dearer when it is launched, demand may improve for the older fashions and that would result in value hikes on older fashions, too.Â
The flip facet of that is that if the brand new iPhone’s costs rise and you’ve got an older iPhone, your outdated iPhone would additionally probably improve in worth, Holland stated.
Buying and selling or promoting a used iPhone will help offset the fee should you do determine to purchase the brand new iPhone.
Different methods Apple may increase costs
Even when Apple decides to carry the subsequent iPhone’s value regular, there are different methods for the tech big to recoup elevated prices.
Apple may doubtlessly offset the influence of tariffs by elevating the worth on its providers — together with its music, information and knowledge plans — in keeping with provide chain professional Joe Hudicka.
“We’ll see these markups within the subscription providers first as a result of they’re going to seem smaller,” he stated. “Customers will nonetheless pay, simply not unexpectedly.”
Ought to we consider rumors and hypothesis about iPhone costs?
So significantly, how a lot is a brand new iPhone going to price? The reality is, we will not say with any certainty what the ultimate numbers will probably be. Our assessments are primarily based on ever-changing tariff insurance policies, previous pricing traits, rumors and leaks which can be typically primarily based on insider information. However till Apple releases the rumored iPhone 17, we are able to solely provide our greatest estimates for the way a lot the ultimate price ticket will probably be.
