EVs Take 63.3% Share In Sweden – Renault 5 Begins Climbing

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April noticed plugin EVs take 63.3% share in Sweden, up from 56.9% YoY.  This development was primarily pushed by an increase in BEV volumes, whereas PHEVs additionally skilled a rise. General auto quantity was 24,292 items, up some 11% YoY. The Volkswagen ID.7 was the best-selling BEV in April.

April’s auto gross sales noticed mixed plugin EVs take 63.3% share in Sweden, with full battery-electrics (BEVs) at 35.2%, and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) at 28.1%. These shares examine YoY in opposition to 56.9% mixed, with 30.9% BEV, and 26.0% PHEV.

By way of gross sales volumes, each BEVs and PHEVs noticed first rate YoY development, of 26% and 20% respectively. HEVs (up 12%) barely matched the general market’s 11% development, diesel-only underperformed the market (up simply 9%), and petrol-only was down in quantity (by 6%). Notice additionally that gross sales of “different fuels” (principally ethanol ICE) have now evaporated since their tax reclassification (as successfully petrol automobiles), again in January. Maybe unsurprisingly, for now it appears former ethanol-car patrons have migrated to petrol automobiles as a substitute.

The overwhelming majority of plugless HEVs bought over the previous 15 months have been Toyotas, with round two thirds of all HEV gross sales. In the meantime Toyota contributed lower than 3% of the PHEVs bought, and much lower than 1% of BEVs bought (underneath a thousand items), over the identical interval.

Stepping again, the EV transition continues to be taking place fairly slowly in Sweden. 12 months-to-date plugin share is 59.5% (with 33.6% being BEVs). The 2024 YTD determine was 55.2% (30.9% BEV), and the 2023 YTD determine was 56.3% (35.6% BEV). It’s clear that BEVs alone aren’t rising strongly, and thus PHEVs are bolstering the general plugin outcome.

The November 2022 cancellation of BEV incentives has put a big brake on progress since. By now, nonetheless, BEVs ought to ideally be standing on their very own toes and much outcompeting same-segment ICE automobiles on TCO, reliability, refinement, and different benefits. They’re doing this in some segments, however plugless automobiles stay over 40% of the market 12 months so far.

One vital change taking place lately (This fall 2024 onwards) is the European arrival of the brand new era of competent small-and-relatively-affordable BEVs (Renault 5, Citroen e-C3, Hyundai Inster, Leapmotor T03 in some markets), and with the BYD Dolphin Mini (aka Dolphin Surf), and different fashions imminent. Comparatively reasonably priced right here means MSRP ranging from underneath €25k (or ideally underneath €20k). This section is already beginning to take off in neighbouring Norway, and Sweden will progressively comply with go well with.

The truth that non-laggards like Leapmotor and BYD (and Hyundai to some extent) are enjoying on this area ought to make for robust volumes and competitors, and thus elevated competence and worth over time. This may have knock-on results in bettering the worth of adjoining segments, and additional enhance BEV share.

Finest Promoting BEV Fashions

The Volkswagen ID.7 was the perfect promoting BEV in April, taking on from final month’s chief, the Volvo XC40, which dropped to second. One other Volvo, the EX30, took third place.

The Volkswagen ID.7 has been very talked-about in Sweden (and in Norway), particularly since launching the Avant / Touring / Wagon variant in the summertime of 2024. It has persistently been in Sweden’s high 5 since September.

Whereas a lot of the high 20 are acquainted faces, there are a few notable movers. One is the brand new Audi A6 e-tron, which noticed its highest volumes but, at 237 items, taking eleventh spot (from seventeenth in March), in simply its 4th month of quantity gross sales.

Staying with the Volkswagen Group, one other climber was the brand new Skoda Elroq. The Enyaq’s smaller and extra reasonably priced sibling registered 180 items, and entered the desk in fifteenth place, in simply its third month on sale. Provided that the Enyaq has been persistently widespread in Sweden, we are able to count on the brand new Elroq to climb additional nonetheless within the months forward, and certain turn into an everyday member of the highest 10.

Outdoors the highest 20, the brand new Renault 5 noticed its first month of first rate quantity (probably together with among the very first buyer deliveries), with 96 items registered, taking twenty sixth place. That is truly forward of the Renault 5’s volumes in neighbouring Norway (the place its rivals, mentioned under, have began first). As alluded to within the dialogue above, may this be the beginning of the small-and-competent period for BEVs in Sweden? Let’s preserve an in depth eye on it.

In the meantime, the little Renault’s shut competitor, the brand new Hyundai Inster, continues to be “in ready” in Sweden with simply 18 items in April, following on from its 37 unit debut in February (it’s already surpassed 70 common month-to-month items in Norway). It’s a compelling car and can give the Renault 5 some wholesome competitors.

The place’s the Citroen e-C3? Though it noticed its first double digit volumes (32 items) in March, and has simply seen a robust 173 items in neighbouring Norway, the e-C3 has nonetheless not stepped up in Sweden, with simply 16 registrations in April.

Stellantis’ general BEV technique in Sweden – mainly “being absent” (solely ~260 passenger BEVs bought 2025 YTD throughout all manufacturers) – don’t maintain your breath on the Citroen e-C3 rapidly climbing to vital volumes on this specific market. If readers have insights into why Stellantis’s BEVs are virtually absent in Sweden (even while its ICE automobiles promote in first rate quantity), however are plentiful in Norway, tell us. Is that this all about BEV incentives and margins?

Maybe if the B section actually takes off in Sweden, Stellantis will push the e-C3. Having stated all that, it’s attainable that the ~10% bigger (although nonetheless comparatively reasonably priced) Citroen e-C3 Aircross is likely to be a fair higher slot in Sweden (and likewise in Norway). This one has lately debuted in its residence market of France, although not but in Scandinavia.

There have been no new BEVs making a Swedish debut in April.

Right here’s the 3-month chart:

The Volkswagen ID.7 and Volvo XC40 have been intently competing over the previous 4 months, with every taking the month-to-month lead twice. As of the newest measurement, the ID.7 is barely forward, however the competitors will little question proceed.

The Tesla Mannequin Y took third, on the power of first rate February and March volumes. The Juniper refresh is beginning to arrive, with present supply wait instances of roughly 6 to 10 weeks (June or July). Let’s control its supply ramp over the subsequent few months, and see whether or not it will probably regain its former pole place.

Additional again, the Kia EV3 took its highest place with fifth (from sixth in final month’s trailing-3), an important outcome contemplating its latest November quantity debut.

The Audi A6 e-tron has joined the highest 20 for the primary time, in seventeenth, outcome, let’s see whether it is sustained. On present trajectory, the Skoda Elroq ought to be a part of the highest 20 by the top of Q2.

Outlook

The 11% YoY development in Sweden’s auto market is first rate, although volumes are nonetheless far down from 2015-2019 norms. The macroeconomic figures present a slowdown of YoY GDP development to 1.1% in Q1 2025, down from a This fall 2024 determine of two.4%. Inflation lowered additional to 0.3%, and rates of interest remained at 2.25%. Manufacturing PMI once more improved barely to 54.2 factors in April, from 53.8 factors in March.

As you might have gathered, I’m now principally involved in seeing change within the reasonably priced finish of the market. Nearly all of the petrol-only automobiles nonetheless bought are B and C section automobiles (VW Golf, Peugeot 2008, Kia Ceed, VW T-Roc, Dacia Sandero, Renault Clio, Kia Picanto, and so forth), and this can be a key space by which BEVs should get extra aggressive.

The Kia EV3 and Volvo EX30 have made an honest influence right here, however aren’t precisely reasonably priced. The Citroen e-C3 (and the Aircross variant), the Hyundai Inster, the Renault 5, and the upcoming BYD Dolphin Surf (previously  “Mini”), and others, have the potential to displace many extra remaining ICE gross sales.

What are your ideas on Sweden’s EV transition? Which new fashions do you suppose will displace remaining ICE gross sales most strongly within the 12 months or so forward? Please be a part of within the dialogue within the feedback under.