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Final Up to date on: twenty fourth August 2025, 12:10 am
In a current article on an uncharacteristically down July for BYD gross sales in China, my now colleague José Pontes requested some pointed questions: Are we seeing “peak BYD”? “Peak PHEV”? A “succession disaster” for his or her hottest mannequin? Having obsessively adopted BYD for some time, I believed I may present some perspective.
The Music Plus was BYD’s best-selling automobile and the best-selling automobile in China total within the first half of the 12 months. BYD’s mannequin strains are break up into completely different collection: the Dynasty collection, with mannequin names primarily based on historic dynasties, and the Ocean collection, with mannequin names primarily based on sea animals (or, beforehand, warships). These completely different collection have been sometimes offered at completely different dealerships. Nevertheless, the Music Plus is an outlier, being offered at Ocean dealerships.
On the finish of July, BYD launched the Sealion 06. That is primarily the successor to the Music Plus, provided as a BEV and a PHEV. It was renamed to raised match the Ocean sellers that promote it. The Sealion 06 is a brand new automobile in China (to not be confused with the abroad Sealion 6) on a brand new platform with extra know-how and higher gear, however with related pricing. The BEV model can be stronger, with RWD and a frunk. All through July, Ocean dealerships have been actively lowering Music Plus stock to make approach for the Sealion 06.
Sealion 06 gross sales are nonetheless ramping up, and it has been rolling out to completely different markets inside China all through this month, equivalent to Hangzhou on August seventh, Beijing on August tenth, and Guangzhou on August thirteenth. Nevertheless, preliminary stories out of China already place it because the best-selling automobile in its class and the second best-selling SUV, even earlier than it was obtainable all through the nation. As anticipated, BEV variations have been outselling PHEV variations. Mixed with remaining gross sales of the Music Plus, which is actually the earlier technology, it’s heading again to the highest of the lists. BYD may hold promoting the Music Plus alongside the Sealion 06 for a short while, like Ram did with the 1500 Basic, however I anticipate quantity to shift to the brand new Sealion 06 in China.
Nevertheless, the Music Plus tooling is heading to abroad manufacturing crops, which just lately began manufacturing or will quickly. Uzbekistan began manufacturing final 12 months, for instance. And it’s the best-selling NEV in different markets, like Turkiye (because the Seal U), which additionally has a manufacturing plant scheduled to come back on-line subsequent 12 months. The Music Plus’s days could also be numbered inside China, nevertheless it nonetheless has a future in international markets.
As well as, different older fashions, notably these primarily based on the 4th Technology DM-i platform, are seeing manufacturing shift abroad. The Music Professional is to be produced in Brazil, the place it was the best-selling NEV within the first half of this 12 months. The Chaser/Destroyer, which used to point out up on high promoting automobile lists in China, just lately began manufacturing in Thailand (to be offered beneath a number of different names).
General, BYD has been investing extra in abroad manufacturing than at residence. This might not be the corporate’s most superior know-how, particularly in nations with know-how sharing agreements, however it’s a vital step up from competing merchandise in these markets. And it’s prone to gasoline BYD’s international progress, which has been quicker abroad than at residence this 12 months.
In the meantime, BYD hasn’t stopped creating PHEVs. The latest information being a ten% discount in gasoline consumption for the 5th technology DM-i platform, created via an AI-enabled system optimization primarily based on real-world utilization knowledge that was rolled out through an OTA replace to new and current autos. It’s first being rolled out to the Qin L and Seal 06, lowering gasoline consumption after the battery vary runs out to 2.6l/100km (~90 mpg) NEDC. Although that is an optimistic ranking system, these midsized vehicles are rated as essentially the most fuel-efficient beneath that system. Related optimizations are to be rolled out to different autos, with extra updates doable sooner or later, particularly with new {hardware}. A ten% enchancment from only a software program replace is fairly spectacular while you actually begin serious about it (biofuels have a smaller proportion affect, at about 6% of US transportation gasoline). General, the improved efficiency has the potential to stimulate PHEV gross sales within the brief time period and thus prolong gross sales life, even when BEVs have the long-term benefit.
In a assembly with sellers in China, Wang Chaunfu said that BYD was within the strategy of lowering redundant fashions. Now we have change into accustomed just lately to BYD persevering with outdated fashions whereas a mess of latest fashions are launched. As fashions change and manufacturing shifts, there might be some short-term disruptions, however these modifications are essential to arrange for the long run. Taking a look at August, primarily based on preliminary discussions, I anticipate one other transitional month in China, with the Sealion 06 nonetheless ramping up and different merchandise shifting. September shall be fascinating.
General, BYD’s gross sales are pushed by product. New product is taking on whereas older product falls again. Whereas components like Black PR can have some short-term affect, robust product tends to beat it in the long run. Final 12 months, BYD had stronger PHEV product introductions and gross sales. This 12 months, BEVs have had stronger product introductions and gross sales. It’s onerous to make certain what subsequent 12 months will carry. Extra effort may go to product for outdoor markets, with progress shifting accordingly. However with over 120,000 R&D engineers and extra EV mental property than anybody, I’d wager that the long-term “peak” is much down the highway.
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