It’s turn into a convention! For the final two years, Matt Sloane of SkyfireAI gave us his predictions for the drone business… and he wasn’t mistaken. Right here’s the 2026 replace! Matt’s tackle the FCC ruling, the massive winners and losers, and what occurs because the drone business enters its “awkward teenage part.” DRONELIFE doesn’t settle for or make fee for visitor posts
Drone Business Predictions for 2026 – The Good, the Unhealthy and the Ugly
by Matt Sloane, SkyfireAI co-founder and Chief Technique Officer
It’s not typically in an rising business that one can see a specific yr as an “inflection level” whereas it’s taking place – that often comes with hindsight, however within the case of the drone business, 2025 was a monumental yr irrespective of the way you slice it.
Whether or not you suppose we took a monumental leap ahead, or a gargantuan step backwards, you’re proper! 2026 can be outlined by the “fallout” or “advantages” of what occurred final yr, relying on which aspect you sit.
First, the yr in overview
We received the Half 108 Discover of Proposed Rulemaking, which WILL change the face of the business ceaselessly. It paves the best way to true Past Visible Line of Sight operations, true autonomy, medical system and client package deal supply, and a subsequent era airspace monitoring system.
As I predicted, the outgoing Biden Administration left the NPRM to the subsequent man, and President Trump acted decisively with govt orders that paved the best way for next-level drone operations; in addition to counter drone authorities.
The rulemaking was late, however the public remark interval that adopted its launch garnered greater than 3,000 submissions.
Common sentiment on the rule itself? An entire lotta great things, and a few stuff that wanted to be mounted; however on the entire, it is going to be a optimistic power for the business.
Extra consolidation occurred, as anticipated, significantly by Ondas Holdings, as they acquired a number of corporations within the area, on the best way to constructing a drone business juggernaut.
The US Military ended up bringing Skydio again into the fold on the Brief Vary Reconnaissance program, to be supplied alongside RedCat’s drones; and Secretary of Battle Pete Hegseth cleared obstacles on the trail to quicker, and extra streamlined procurement throughout the Division of Battle for unmanned techniques.
In anticipation of World Cup 2026, Counter-UAS is lastly getting its time within the solar, with an govt order, adopted by provisions within the NDAA that begin delegating mitigation powers to State, Native, Tribal and Territorial companions, and away from simply the Division of Justice.
And final, however definitely not least… CHINA! The problem that continues to plague the business, and dominated each dialog about what’s subsequent for the business.
Simply earlier than Christmas, the Federal Communications Fee did what everybody predicted they’d, and added DJI and Autel to the Company’s Coated Listing, successfully banning these corporations from licensing any new drone fashions within the US.
In addition they went a step – nay, a mile – additional, and added ALL international made drones and elements to the Coated Listing; in a transfer that had tech journalists, business watchers and LinkedIn warriors working additional time on Christmas.
Whereas it was just below two weeks in the past, all of us went right into a time warp, and emerged right here in 2026, so let’s check out what this – and all the remainder of it means for the drone business this yr.
Going again to my preliminary paragraph – whether or not you suppose the business received or misplaced in 2025, you’re proper.
The Half 108 proposed rule making will probably be was a remaining rule someday in 2026, and can begin the clock on really superior drone operations being de rigueur within the US. When precisely we’ll see this remaining rule is anyone’s guess, however it is going to be monumental when it occurs.
It’s going to lastly permit large corporations and small alike to begin planning for this inevitable future, and capitalizing accordingly.
The US Military (and DoW general) may have aggressive and way more versatile new buying authority, and can take the concept of offering expertise to the army out of simply multi-year, large firm applications of report; and permit smaller revolutionary corporations to play.
Extra consolidation will occur – it’ll must, to maintain up with the tempo that can be set in 2026.
Huge corporations will want extra small, agile teams to remain on high of developments, and issues can be transferring so shortly, it’ll be higher to “purchase” functionality than to “construct it.” Ain’t no one received time for that!
Automation and AI will transfer from being a “good to have” to being a “should have,” as operations get extra advanced, demanding, longer-range, and involving multiple plane at a time.
Oh, and we’ll must do all of it with none international drones or drone elements… sorta.
There have been a minimum of 3 million articles within the final two weeks about what’s taking place with the FCC’s ruling, so I’ll spare you the column-space; however what I’ll say is that this: There are ALOT of individuals throughout the business who’re scared. It’s a tricky time, even for the “winners” right here, who supply a whole lot of their elements from abroad (not simply from China), so there can be strife.
In some methods, this can be one of many hardest years the drone business has seen because it’s inception, as a result of the whole lot must change!
Corporations will exit of enterprise that rely closely on Chinese language drones; public security businesses will face tools droughts, funds gaps and plenty of irritating conversations as they fight to determine what’s subsequent; and all people will blame Skydio.
However let me give you some meals for thought as you learn this, and look in the direction of the yr forward:
The reality of the matter is that this problem LONG predated Skydio. Loads of corporations – each American and international – engaged in lobbying and affect campaigns in DC, and naturally they did – that’s what you do while you’re making an attempt to construct an business.
Skydio, BRINC, RedCat and Uncommon Machines seem to have been the massive “winners” out of this complete factor, however I believe it’s extra nuanced than that.
I believe these corporations will definitely have some wins due to this ruling that they wouldn’t have had with out it; however I additionally suppose this transfer creates a MASSIVE alternative for the remainder of us who’re making an attempt to construct this business.
When you’re compelled to design and construct your product towards the backdrop of cheap Chinese language merchandise, it knee-caps your capability to design the product you ought to be making, and forces you to make the product they’re making.
Does this imply that it’ll all occur with out ache – completely not. As somebody who recurrently flies DJI and Autel plane; and helps shoppers who do the identical – this might current some new alternatives this yr.
We’re most definitely coming into our “awkward teenage part” as an business, and like a household residing with an ungainly teenager (or pre-teen in my very own case), it received’t come and not using a battle.
However to make use of a metaphor that possibly solely I’ll get as a self-confessed climate geek; we’re in an eyewall substitute cycle.
The hurricane is tearing down its personal organized construction, and issues get somewhat messy and arduous to foretell. However the motive hurricanes do that – and the rationale our business desperately wants to do that – is as a result of the entire system is disorganized, and constructed on a basis that occurred piecemeal over a long time. A few of it really works, a few of it doesn’t.
We’re regrouping, eliminating the elements that don’t serve us (or our nationwide safety); and we’re going to construct again stronger.
That’s chaotic for these folks residing contained in the storm, to make certain; however progress doesn’t come with out change; and alter is commonly messy.
So buckle up, as a result of a whole lot of that change is coming, however this business is constructing itself right into a Class 5 storm. I, for one, am thrilled to be within the hurricane-hunter plane watching all of it occur.
Matt Sloane is the co-founder and Chief Technique Officer at SkyfireAI. With over a decade of expertise in public security and drone expertise, Matt has helped numerous businesses combine drones into their essential incident response. Previous to Skyfire, he labored as a medical information producer at CNN and served as an EMT. Matt is actively concerned in shaping drone rules and coverage and is a licensed pilot.
