Airline Emissions Soar to Pre-COVID Ranges as Europe Fails to Worth Their Air pollution

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Final Up to date on: twenty ninth April 2025, 03:44 am

Emissions from European aviation have virtually bounced again to 2019 ranges, with flights inside Europe even exceeding these, a brand new T&E examine reveals. The EU’s carbon market (EU ETS) is at the moment failing to handle the true price of those emissions, amid indicators of local weather backtracking from airways.

Aviation emissions and site visitors up, low-cost airways eat up extra of the market

In 2024, the European aviation sector virtually absolutely bounced again to pre-COVID ranges [1], reaching 96% of 2019 flight numbers and 98% of emissions. The examine additionally reveals that ten airways have been chargeable for 40% of all European aviation emissions, the highest polluters being Ryanair (16 Mt CO₂), Lufthansa (10 Mt CO₂) and British Airways (9 Mt CO₂).

Over 8.4 million flights departed from European airports final yr, producing 187.6 Mt of CO₂. Relating to intra-European flights, pre-COVID emissions ranges have been surpassed, with extra-European flights on an analogous trajectory [2].

Krisztina Hencz, Aviation Coverage Supervisor at T&E, stated: “Aviation emissions are spiraling uncontrolled. So as to add insult to harm, the sector continues to dodge the true price of its air pollution, making a mockery of airways’ pledges to construct again greener after COVID. If Europe continues down this path, ‘inexperienced’ aviation will stay a figment of individuals’s imaginations. Subsequent yr’s evaluate of EU carbon markets is an opportunity to rectify a loophole within the present laws and guarantee airways pay for the true price of their air pollution.”

The examine additionally charts the persevering with pattern of low-cost service growth within the European aviation business. That is even the case within the extra-European market, which is often dominated by flagship carriers like Lufthansa and Air France.

High polluting routes expose cracks in key aviation local weather laws

The best-emitting routes departing Europe in 2024 have been all intercontinental, with London-New York topping the checklist. At present, these emissions usually are not priced underneath the EU, Swiss or UK carbon markets, which solely apply to flights inside Europe [3]. Because of this, no airline needed to pay for his or her emissions on essentially the most polluting routes departing from Europe. T&E’s examine means that as a lot as 70% of CO₂ emissions from aviation remained unpriced in 2024.

The EU will evaluate its ETS subsequent yr, presenting the chance to handle this basic flaw by extending its scope to all departing flights. However the evaluate will come amid indicators of local weather backtracking from the aviation business, with CEOs from distinguished airways calling on the EU to weaken its carbon pricing guidelines.

Extending the ETS might generate billions for the inexperienced transition

Alongside local weather advantages, an extension of the European carbon markets might generate important revenues. T&E estimates that an extension of the EU and UK ETS might have generated a further €7.5 billion euros in 2024 if extra-European emissions have been priced [4].

As an alternative, many airline CEOs are diverting consideration by selling a budget world aviation offsetting scheme CORSIA, which fees as much as 23 instances much less to pollute than an extension of the EU system [5]. As well as, CORSIA is not going to assist to boost revenues for inexperienced applied sciences like sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) and electrical and hydrogen plane.

“Counting on CORSIA to cowl worldwide emissions from aviation is a false economic system,” Krisztina Hencz added. “It’s by far the worst possibility, each environmentally and financially. An prolonged EU ETS would ship the best constructive impression for European economies, alongside having the biggest environmental advantages.”

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Europe’s 2024 airline emissions uncovered

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Notes:

[1] Each April, the European Fee releases compiled EU and Swiss emissions buying and selling system (ETS) emissions knowledge. Whereas this dataset is restricted to emissions from intra-European flights, T&E incorporates into the evaluation all flights departing from EU Member States, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and the UK, to permit for a extra complete image of aviation-related emissions at European and worldwide degree. That is performed by combining EU and Swiss ETS knowledge with emissions calculated from OAG flights knowledge.

[2] Zooming on on intra-EU flights solely, 2019 emissions ranges have been surpassed, whereas extra-EU flights will attain that degree quickly (totalling at 91% of 2019 ranges in 2024).

[3] The primary intra-European flight that’s included within the present scope of the EU ETS (Barcelona-London) would land because the one hundred and thirty fifth on this T&E examine

[4] This evaluation doesn’t account for the potential lower in demand that might consequence from pricing these emissions

[5]  Compared, calculating with an out there CORSIA offset worth estimate of 16.56€ per ton, the full invoice of EU aviation can be 0.5 billion euros based mostly on EU 2024 emissions. 23 instances much less to be paid for then contemplating an EU ETS scope prolonged for all departing flights from Europe. That is however the truth that CORSIA revenues wouldn’t keep in Europe however land within the pockets of worldwide offset suppliers for questionable worldwide initiatives.

Press launch from T&E.