Google says AI Overviews improve clicks. Chilly, exhausting logic disagrees, and so does our analysis.
We analyzed 300,000 key phrases and located that the presence of an AI Overview within the search outcomes correlated with a 34.5% decrease common clickthrough fee (CTR) for the top-ranking web page, in comparison with related informational key phrases with out an AI Overview.
Because of our information scientist, Xibeijia Guan, for pulling the information for this evaluation.
“In truth, when you put content material and hyperlinks inside AI Overviews, they get increased clickthrough charges than when you put it outdoors of AI Overviews.”
We chosen 300,000 key phrases from Ahrefs Key phrases Explorer database, consisting of 150,000 key phrases with an AI Overview current and 150,000 key phrases with informational intent and no AI Overview current.
We used aggregated GSC information to get every key phrase’s common desktop clickthrough fee (CTR) per 30 days (sum of clicks/sum of impressions). We then in contrast the clickthrough charges for each samples for March 2024 (earlier than the US rollout of AI overviews) and March 2025 (after).
See the place AI Overviews seem on your rankings
You should utilize the SERP options filter to see precisely the place AI Overviews are triggering on your key phrase rankings. Head to Ahrefs’ Website Explorer, navigate to the Natural key phrases report, and choose AI Overview from the SERP options filter.
In March 2024, the typical place one CTR for informational key phrases was 0.056. In March 2025, this had dropped to 0.031:
In March 2024, the typical place one CTR for AI Overview key phrases was 0.073. In March 2025, this had dropped to 0.026:
Sidenote.
“AI Overview key phrases” confer with key phrases that triggered an AI Overview in March 2025. In March 2024, earlier than the US rollout of AI Overviews, these key phrases didn’t set off an AI Overview.
We are able to use the drop in CTR for informational key phrases to foretell the CTR for our pattern of AI Overview key phrases, assuming AI Overviews had not rolled out. This forecasted CTR is 0.040 (0.073*(0.031/0.056)).
Calculating the distinction between the forecasted and precise CTR for AI Overview key phrases means that the presence of AI Overviews reduces the click-through fee for place 1 by ~34.5% ((0.026-0.040)/0.040):
Closing ideas
This isn’t stunning. I’ve seen anecdata suggesting that some web sites have seen clicks scale back by 20–40% for the reason that rollout of AI overviews.
It appears doable. AI Overviews perform in an identical method to Featured Snippets, by attempting to resolve the searcher’s question immediately within the SERP—doubtless contributing to extra zero-click searches. And though AI Overviews typically include quotation hyperlinks, there could be many of those hyperlinks cited, making it much less doubtless for any single hyperlink to earn the lion’s share of clicks.
It’s additionally telling that regardless of Google’s optimistic declare that “hyperlinks included in AI Overviews get extra clicks than if the web page had appeared as a conventional internet itemizing for that question”, there may be nonetheless no method to disambiguate AI Overview clicks and impressions from the remainder of your Search Console information.
It appears that evidently Google doesn’t need us to see the clickthrough fee for AI Overviews.
Assuming AI Overviews keep on this present type, that is additionally doubtless the highest the CTR will likely be. Because the novelty wears off and the legislation of shitty clickthroughs kicks in, I’d count on to see clicks scale back additional.
