What this put up covers:
Yearly, Invoice D’Alessandro and I make predictions about the place eCommerce is headed. Listed here are our 11 predictions for 2026, overlaying all the pieces from AI-powered promoting to tariffs to the destiny of life-style e-commerce manufacturers.
- My 5 predictions for 2026
- Invoice’s 6 predictions for 2026
- Why there’s a steak dinner on the road this yr
Fast be aware on stakes: we received known as out final yr for being too beneficiant, grading ourselves on our 2025 predictions. Truthful criticism. So this yr, we’re feeding the transcript into Claude and Grok on the finish of 2026 and letting AI declare a winner.
Loser buys the winner a steak dinner. And feeds them the primary chew. (Humiliations galore).
Right here’s what I’m betting on:
My Predictions
1. LLMs will launch advert platforms that make Meta’s focusing on look primitive.
Meta is aware of your pursuits. ChatGPT is aware of you’re afraid what you are promoting associate resents you, you’ve Googled “indicators of burnout” 4 instances this month, and also you’re one unhealthy quarter away from critically contemplating promoting.
When OpenAI launches advertisements, the focusing on gained’t simply be exact. It would really feel telepathic. Early movers win huge.
2. Tariffs on China will settle between 30-50%, not greater.
Inflation is creeping up and financial development seems to be tender. Trump responds to markets, and when the bond market freaked out earlier this yr, tariffs received walked again quick. I don’t see him taking pictures a wounded economic system when issues are already shaky.
3. The AI bubble gained’t pop in 2026.
Counter to prevailing opinion right here. The NASDAQ’s ahead PE is round 27x proper now. Through the 2000 tech bubble, it was north of 100x. Authorities AI spending can also be roughly 5x what tech spending was again in 2000, adjusted for inflation. The basics look totally different this time.
4. Main platforms will begin testing “verified human” content material badges.
I created a recent X account not too long ago and was shocked. Roughly a 3rd of the movies in my feed seemed AI-generated. Belief is eroding quick. I feel we’ll see not less than one main platform experiment with certifying content material as human-created this yr.
5. Video and audio modifying will likely be largely automated at 7/10 high quality.
Descript can virtually do that now. By yr finish, I feel you’ll have the ability to drop uncooked footage into an AI, inform it what issues, and get a sophisticated edit again. Scrappy founders will produce content material that used to require a full manufacturing workforce.
Invoice’s Predictions
1. 2026 would be the yr of the Ok-shaped economic system.
Large tech and the Magazine 7 proceed to run, perhaps up one other 20%+, whereas the true economic system and common shopper struggles. For eCommerce, Invoice thinks you both have to go up-market promoting to prosperous customers, or go down-market with sharp pricing on necessities. The center is harmful.
2. Inflation will likely be north of three% in 2026.
Invoice sees no political will to chop spending, which implies continued deficit spending, which implies inflation. He thinks that is sticky for the subsequent decade, not simply 2026. His recommendation: place your portfolio and what you are promoting for a persistent inflationary atmosphere.
3. AI will utterly take over Meta advertisements content material.
Invoice’s seen proof of ideas from huge manufacturers working pipelines that spit out 100 novel advertisements per day. AI reads opinions, pulls model property, generates stills and shortly video, and launches immediately by way of the API. He thinks 2026 is when this goes mainstream.
4. The life-style model is lifeless.
Except you will have sturdy IP safety or a high 5-10% model, single-digit million eCommerce companies are going to get crushed. Bigger gamers constructing AI-powered machines will outspend you, out-test you, and tolerate greater CACs than you possibly can.
5. M&A will likely be gang busters on the excessive finish and anemic on the low finish.
Offers above $1B are up 19% yr over yr. Offers within the small and mid-size vary dropped 18%. Invoice thinks this continues: top-tier companies will command eye-popping multiples, whereas typical eCommerce manufacturers battle to transact in any respect.
6. Bitcoin will dip beneath $70K however end above $100K.
Invoice sees competing pressures: a struggling shopper hurts Bitcoin as a threat asset, however inflation helps Bitcoin as digital gold. He thinks volatility comes first half of the yr with a dip beneath $70K, then restoration because the inflation narrative takes maintain.
You’ll be able to take heed to the complete episode right here.
When OpenAI launches advertisements, the focusing on gained’t simply be exact. It would really feel telepathic.
Need an actual peek into the longer term?
Predictions are enjoyable, however they’re not your greatest wager for actually staying forward of the curve.
What you actually need is to plug right into a braintrust of a thousand seven and eight-figure retailer house owners who’re discussing what’s working, what’s not, and what to anticipate going ahead.
Be part of us contained in the eComFuel group and be taught from others such as you within the trenches about what to anticipate this yr.
