Tesla US Gross sales Down 19.4% From Two Years In the past

Help CleanTechnica’s work by way of a Substack subscription or on Stripe.

We’ve been protecting Tesla’s gross sales drops for some time now, and I believe the quarterly focus has really come to obscure how a lot the EV large has slid.

Nobody is speaking about Tesla’s focused 50% progress a 12 months any longer. Nevertheless, Tesla bulls and followers are usually optimistic a few return to optimistic developments — there appears to be a relentless hope that issues are about to show round. For one purpose or one other, time after time, the poor outcomes of the previous quarter are thought-about to be distinctive and quick time period, with Tesla having an answer up its sleeve that’s going to deliver again progress within the close to future.

This quarter, that will really be the case, for the reason that expiring $7,500 US tax credit score for EVs is resulting in many rushed purchases and the corporate additionally simply launched a brand new model of the Mannequin Y in China that fits that market properly (the Mannequin Y L). Nevertheless, can these issues totally counteract different developments, and may Tesla get again to earlier volumes past this quarter?

Properly, Tesla is definitely dealing with very totally different challenges and has totally different advantages in numerous markets. The USA is way totally different from Europe which is way totally different from China. Specializing in the US market in the interim, how far have the model’s gross sales really dropped? That’s what I used to be questioning, so I went into the numbers to see.

Taking a look at whole car gross sales numbers for the primary half of the 12 months, Tesla’s outcomes are down a whopping 19.4% in comparison with the primary half of 2023 — from about 337,000 to about 272,000. (That’s additionally with decrease common promoting costs and decrease revenue margins as a result of worth cuts and greater shopper incentives.) They’re down 10.8% in comparison with the primary half of final 12 months. The very fact is that short-term gross sales drops have become medium-term gross sales drops — Tesla gross sales have been dropping fairly persistently for the previous two and a half years in case you take a look at year-over-year developments.

Total, I don’t suppose it’s excessive or unfair to notice {that a} practically 20% drop in gross sales is a giant deal and a very regarding drawback for the corporate. And if the development continues, gross sales may very well be down one other 10% in 2026…. True robotaxi functionality and Cybercabs are supposed to show that round. Nevertheless, as anybody following the corporate for the previous decade is aware of, this has been a “boy cries wolf” story (or “boy cries Full Self Driving” story) throughout most of that point, with expectations and adamant predictions coming and going just like the seasons. May this be the 12 months that the market explodes from robotaxi functionality? Who is aware of? If that just about magical answer doesn’t save the day, although, can we actually count on Tesla’s gross sales developments will rebound? Or will they not less than stabilize? Or will they drop but once more?…

And right here’s the place we get to a essential query: how rather more of a gross sales loss can Tesla maintain financially earlier than it’s shedding cash quarter after quarter?