At the very least 14 nuclear scientists are believed to be amongst these killed in Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, launched on June 13, 2025, ostensibly to destroy or degrade Iran’s nuclear program and army capabilities.
Intentionally focusing on scientists on this approach goals to disrupt Iran’s information base and continuity in nuclear experience. Amongst these assassinated have been Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, a theoretical physicist and head of Iran’s Islamic Azad College, and Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, a nuclear engineer who led Iran’s Atomic Power Group.
Collectively, these consultants in physics and engineering have been potential successors to Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, broadly considered the architect of the Iranian nuclear program, who was assassinated in a November 2020 assault many blame on Israel.
As two political scientists writing a e-book about state focusing on of scientists as a counterproliferation software, we perceive properly that nuclear scientists have been focused because the nuclear age started. We’ve gathered knowledge on almost 100 situations of what we name “scientist focusing on” from 1944 via 2025.
The newest assassination marketing campaign towards Iranian scientists is totally different from lots of the earlier episodes in a number of key methods. Israel’s latest assault focused a number of nuclear consultants and befell concurrently with army pressure to destroy Iran’s nuclear services, air defenses and power infrastructure. Additionally, in contrast to earlier covert operations, Israel instantly claimed duty for the assassinations.
However our analysis signifies that focusing on scientists will not be efficient for counterproliferation. Whereas eradicating particular person experience might delay nuclear acquisition, focusing on alone is unlikely to destroy a program outright and will even enhance a rustic’s need for nuclear weapons. Additional, focusing on scientists might set off blowback given issues concerning legality and morality.
A coverage with an extended historical past
Focusing on nuclear scientists started throughout World Struggle II when Allied and Soviet forces raced to seize Nazi scientists, degrade Adolf Hitler’s skill to construct a nuclear bomb and use their experience to advance the U.S. and Soviet nuclear applications.
In our knowledge set, we categorized “focusing on” as instances during which scientists have been captured, threatened, injured or killed as nations tried to forestall adversaries from buying weapons of mass destruction. Over time, not less than 4 nations have focused scientists engaged on 9 nationwide nuclear applications.
America and Israel have allegedly carried out probably the most assaults on nuclear scientists. However the UK and Soviet Union have additionally been behind such assaults.
In the meantime, scientists working for the Egyptian, Iranian and Iraqi nuclear applications have been probably the most frequent targets since 1950. Since 2007 and previous to the present Israeli operation, 10 scientists concerned within the Iranian nuclear program have been killed in assaults. Different nations’ nationals have additionally been focused: In 1980, Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, allegedly bombed Italian engineer Mario Fiorelli’s residence and his agency, SNIA Techint, as a warning to Europeans concerned within the Iraqi nuclear challenge.
Given this historical past, the truth that Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program shouldn’t be itself shocking. Certainly, it has been a strategic purpose of successive Israeli prime ministers to forestall Iran from buying nuclear weapons, and consultants had been warning of the elevated probability of an Israeli army operation since mid-2024, because of regional dynamics and Iranian nuclear growth.
Scott Peterson/Getty Photographs
By then, the steadiness of energy within the Center East had modified dramatically. Israel systematically degraded the management and infrastructure of Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. It later destroyed Iranian air defenses round Tehran and close to key nuclear installations. The following fall of Syria’s Assad regime value Tehran one other long-standing ally. Collectively, these developments have considerably weakened Iran, leaving it susceptible to exterior assault and stripped of its once-feared proxy community, which had been anticipated to retaliate on its behalf within the occasion of hostilities.
With its proxy “axis of resistance” defanged and traditional army capability degraded, Iranian management might have thought that increasing its enrichment functionality was its finest wager going ahead.
And within the months main as much as Israel’s latest assault, Iran expanded its nuclear manufacturing capability, shifting past 60% uranium enrichment, a technical step simply wanting weapons-grade materials. Throughout Donald Trump’s first time period, the president withdrew the U.S. from a multilateral nonproliferation settlement geared toward curbing Iran’s nuclear program. After being reelected, Trump appeared to alter tack by pursuing new diplomacy with Iran, however these talks have to this point didn’t ship an settlement – and could also be placed on maintain for the foreseeable future amid the warfare.
Most lately, the Worldwide Atomic Power Company board of governors declared Iran in non-compliance with its nuclear-nonproliferation obligations. In response, Iran introduced it was additional increasing its enrichment capability by including superior centrifuge know-how and a 3rd enrichment website.
Even when the worldwide group anticipated the broader assault on Iran, traits of the focusing on itself are shocking. Traditionally, states have covertly focused particular person scientists. However the latest multiple-scientist assault occurred overtly, with Israel taking duty, publicly indicating the assaults’ function. Additional, whereas it’s not new for a rustic to make use of a number of counter-proliferation instruments towards an adversary over time, that Israel is utilizing each preventive army pressure towards infrastructure and focusing on scientists directly is atypical.
Moreover, such assaults towards scientists are traditionally decrease tech and low value, with demise or harm stemming from gunmen, automobile bombs or accidents. In truth, Abbasi – who was killed in the latest assaults – survived a 2010 automobile bombing in Tehran. There are outliers, nevertheless, together with the Fakhrizadeh assassination, which featured a remotely operated machine gun smuggled into Iranian territory.
Israel’s logic in going after scientists
Why goal nuclear scientists?
In international coverage, there are quite a few instruments obtainable if one state goals to forestall one other state from buying nuclear weapons. Alongside focusing on scientists, there are sanctions, diplomacy, cyberattacks and army pressure.
Focusing on scientists might take away essential scientific experience and impose prices that enhance the issue of constructing nuclear weapons. Proponents argue that focusing on these consultants might undermine a state’s efforts, deter it from persevering with nuclear developments and sign to others the perils of supporting nuclear proliferation.
Nations that focus on scientists due to this fact consider that doing so is an efficient solution to degrade an adversary’s nuclear program. Certainly, the Israel Protection Forces described the latest assaults as “a major blow to the regime’s skill to accumulate weapons of mass destruction.”
Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu by way of Getty Photographs
Regardless of Israel’s concentrate on scientists as sources of essential information, there could also be hundreds extra working inside Iran, calling into query the efficacy of focusing on them. Additional, there are authorized, moral and ethical issues over focusing on scientists.
Furthermore, it’s a dangerous possibility which will fail to disrupt an enemy nuclear program whereas sparking public outrage and requires retaliation. That is particularly the case if scientists, usually considered civilians, are elevated as martyrs.
Focusing on campaigns might, in consequence, reinforce home help for a authorities, which may then redouble efforts towards nuclear growth.
No matter whether or not focusing on scientists is an efficient counter-proliferation software, it has been round because the begin of the nuclear age – and can doubtless persist as a part of the international coverage toolkit for states aiming to forestall proliferation. Within the case of the present Israeli battle with Iran and its focusing on of nuclear scientists, we anticipate the tactic to proceed at some point of the warfare and past.
Jenna Jordan, Affiliate Professor of Worldwide Affairs, Georgia Institute of Know-how and Rachel Whitlark, Affiliate Professor of Worldwide Affairs, Georgia Institute of Know-how. This text is republished from The Dialog below a Inventive Commons license. Learn the authentic article.
