What Occurs When US Electrical energy Demand Craters?

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CleanTechnica reader BigWu just lately introduced an attention-grabbing thought experiment to my thoughts. He introduced up the ramifications for fossil gas energy sources if the economic system crashes and electrical energy demand drops kind of commensurately.

“We’re about to see US electrical energy demand crater because of the malignant and willful ignorance of our ‘leaders’ tanking the US economic system,” he postulated. “The upside is that this almost ensures a collapse in fossil fueled era as photo voltaic, wind, hydro, geothermal, and nuclear can simply out-bid fossil mills.”

It’s a terrific level, however let’s simply clarify why. With electrical energy demand rising, in fact, we merely depend on constructed energy vegetation and progressively add to them — with 92.5% of these new ones coming from renewables, largely solar energy, now. That may transition the grid to wash, renewable vitality over time, however you type of have to attend for previous, polluting, fossil fueled energy vegetation to age out and retire.

Nonetheless, if electrical energy demand drops, then some current energy vegetation clearly must be shot off, or their electrical energy not used. To get all the way down to the fundamentals, with energy vegetation, you’ve got fastened prices (which incorporates the price to construct the facility plant) and marginal prices (which Investopedia defines as “the prices related to producing a further unit of output”). What are the marginal prices for photo voltaic and wind energy vegetation? Nearly nothing. There’s no gas value, since sunshine and the wind are free. What are the prices for a coal or fuel energy plant? Appreciable, since these fuels should not free.

So, if an influence plant must be shut down as a result of there simply isn’t as a lot demand as earlier than, it’s nearly positively going to be a fossil gas energy plant, and it positively shouldn’t be a photo voltaic or wind energy plant.

As such, even higher than having renewable vitality energy vegetation present 100% of latest capability every year is having electrical energy demand shrink, which instantly results in the fossil gas energy fleet shrinking.

After all, there are “good” and “dangerous” methods to realize declining electrical energy demand. Larger vitality effectivity can deliver down electrical energy demand, however the trigger BigWu is referencing is a powerful financial downturn from Donald Trump and his corrupt, brainless crew screwing up the US economic system through excessive tariffs, DOGE cuts, extremist immigration insurance policies, and general mismanagement of the federal authorities. Nobody actually needs their financial of monetary scenario to worsen, and that’s what would occur for many of us if the US economic system crashed, however the silver lining of that scenario could possibly be accelerated retirement of fossil gas energy vegetation. Furthermore, it might seemingly be a few of the oldest, most polluting, most inefficient energy vegetation that may be shut down first.

Nobody would accuse Donald Trump of being a pro-environment, pro-climate, pro-human well being president, but when he really despatched the US into an financial collapse — the likes of which we’ve by no means seen — he may find yourself being one of many presidents most useful for slowing world heating and local weather disaster. Who is aware of? We will see.

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