Outgoing T-Cell CFO Peter Osvaldik categorically rejected the concept that SpaceX’s Starlink satellite-to-smartphone service is usually a severe competitor to its 5G community and isn’t satisfied the corporate has a stable plan to take action.
Talking at Citi’s 2026 World TMT Convention on Wednesday, he shot down the varied methods Starlink has entertained taking over wi-fi carriers, which escalated with SpaceX’s mega IPO this 12 months, and ridiculed its slapdash method.
“Think about if we as a administration staff over the course of two months modified the technique to how we will roll out a wi-fi community like a dozen occasions. You’d giggle us out of the room and kick me out of the administration staff, appropriately so,” he stated.
Osvaldik pointed to the early notion that direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity from low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites might substitute terrestrial mobile networks. However fundamental physics guidelines out that state of affairs.
One of many limitations of satellite tv for pc D2D is poor indoor protection. Indicators coming from satellites which might be 350km above Earth lose power by the point they attain handsets, in order that the connection can’t penetrate buildings.
“The physics simply do not enable direct-to-cell to be a substitute product … You possibly can’t get by buildings, partitions. You possibly can’t even get by a Tesla windscreen,” stated Osvaldik.
One other concept is to function as a cell digital community operator (MVNO) operating on a service’s terrestrial community. Right here, Starlink has met a wall of resistance from AT&T, T-Cell and Verizon who aren’t open to an MVNO association. They’re additionally adamant that there isn’t a so-called backdoor route through acquisition of one other MVNO for regulatory causes.
Constructing its personal community is another choice. However Starlink doesn’t have the “path to the appropriate stage of spectrum property,” he stated.
After which there’s the femtocell technique. That is the newest plan that “all people within the know is laughing at and has betrayed the truth that there isn’t a technique there,” he stated.
SpaceX revealed throughout its first earnings name final month that it intends to compete immediately with US wi-fi carriers utilizing the spectrum it acquired from EchoStar to construct a hybrid terrestrial-satellite community. The terrestrial half can be made up of rooftop small cells, an concept that has been extensively criticised by wi-fi trade specialists.
Osvaldik stated T-Cell estimates that it could take “over a billion femtocells to have the equal out of doors protection with all of the interference issues [and] backhaul issues.”
“[Starlink] will not be a aggressive risk from a wi-fi perspective in any respect,” he concluded.
Starlink nonetheless looms
Nonetheless, in relation to satellite tv for pc broadband, it is a totally different story. Starlink broadband does not have the identical challenges as cell D2D as a result of it makes use of “totally different spectral property and exterior powered antennas.”
Osvaldik downplayed the competitors from Starlink for its 5G fastened wi-fi entry and fiber, as a result of the satellite tv for pc operator is specializing in a unique section of the broadband market than T-Cell.
“We will proceed to see [Starlink] being profitable going from the deep rural into suburban fringe, whereas concurrently we’re attacking from city into extra dense and midsized suburban,” he stated.
Verizon CEO Dan Schulman additionally dismissed Starlink’s aggressive risk in broadband and D2D, talking at Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Expertise Convention on Wednesday.
“We have seen zero discernible impression on our broadband development from any LEO satellite tv for pc supplier, together with Starlink. The extra I dive into the physics of satellite tv for pc … the extra satisfied I’m, whether or not or not it’s broadband to the house or direct to machine, that satellite tv for pc is a complementary service … over the medium to long run, not a direct competitor. They only cannot compete with out a terrestrial community in city and suburban,” stated Schulman.
T-Cell has an unique partnership with Starlink for cell satellite tv for pc D2D companies that lasts till at the very least the tip of this 12 months, and the service has not disclosed when the exclusivity expires.
The service has stated that use of the cell satellite tv for pc service is very low, accounting for 0.0002% of its community utilization.
T-Cell together with AT&T and Verizon are contemplating working collectively to make use of satellite tv for pc to fill rural protection gaps. They agreed in precept to create a satellite tv for pc three way partnership to pool some spectrum assets and create a platform to interact with satellite tv for pc operators. In the event that they agree on definitive phrases, the JV might be a mannequin for retaining the connection with satellite tv for pc operators as a wholesale partnership and probably head off direct competitors.
