After monitoring costs for telecom transport providers for greater than twenty years, there are two issues we all know for sure: telecom costs range extensively all over the world, they usually change over time.
As multinational companies throughout industries grapple with value modifications, they’re additionally reevaluating how cloud, safety, SD-WAN—and ultimately AI—will impression the configuration and prices of their WAN providers. That is why we created this WAN Market Dimension Forecast.
Our WAN Market Dimension Forecast mannequin demonstrates the income impacts of those anticipated modifications for the rest of the 2020s, with web and SD-WAN supplanting a lot of the income that got here from MPLS circuits. Our assumptions had been pushed by our WAN Supervisor Survey, WAN Price Benchmark and WAN Geography Benchmark prospects, and our many conversations with choice makers from each the purchase and promote sides of the enterprise. This evaluation is predicated on the information you’ll be able to entry in TeleGeography’s Cloud and WAN Analysis Service.
This WAN Market Dimension Forecast covers:
Key Takeaways
- World WAN connectivity income is mainly flat, with a slight decline from $442 billion in 2025 to $433 by 2030.
- MPLS income will fall off a cliff, going from $130 billion to $57 billion.
- Nevertheless, DIA income, bolstered by a rising demand for high-speed ports, will choose up a lot of that slack, rising from $99 billion to $142 billion.
- Income progress is uneven all over the world with some areas such because the U.S. & Canada and Western Europe poised to choose up extra income, whereas others like East and South Asia prone to lose income. That is probably attributable to slower bandwidth demand progress in costlier nations.
- Many nations will keep regular of their placement on the highest 25. The U.S. China, and Australia stay within the high three, nevertheless, some costly markets like India, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates lose floor within the mannequin, attributable to lack of demand for high-speed ports.
World WAN Connectivity Market Sizes: 2025-2030
World Market Dimension by Main Product Division
The overall international WAN market dimension is mainly flat from 2025-2030, transferring from $442 billion in 2025 to $433 billion in 2030. Whereas the general income seems secure, vital shifts are occurring beneath the floor between product classes.
World Income Forecasts for Main WAN Merchandise: 2025-2030
- MPLS: Forecasted to fall sharply from $130 billion in 2025 to $57 billion in 2030.
- DIA: Makes up for a lot of the MPLS loss, rising from $99 billion to $142 billion.
- Native Entry: Stays mainly flat as some entry loops are misplaced to declining MPLS ports, however bigger entry traces are required for high-capacity DIA port connections.
- Broadband: Will increase from $4.5 billion to $6 billion, although it stays a small a part of international income.
- SD-WAN: Projected to just about double from $23 billion to $42 billion.
World WAN Market Dimension by Particular Product Set
Our mannequin breaks out the precise product units to forecast every particular person sort primarily based on the variety of websites and bandwidths they’re prone to be at in all 231 nations. It may be helpful to see how native entry is cut up between MPLS and DIA, for instance, to know how entry markets might take up the decline of MPLS and rise of larger-port DIA. The next desk highlights the shifting share contribution of particular merchandise to the overall WAN market income from 2025 to 2030:
World WAN Revenues by Particular Product (Share of Market)
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Market Dynamics:
- Steadiness of Connectivity: There’s a clear shift in dominance as MPLS declines from practically 30% of world income in 2025 to only over 13% in 2030, whereas DIA grows to take practically 33% of the market.
- Native Entry Evolution: Whereas native entry for MPLS is declining, it’s being offset by an increase in native entry for off-net DIA. This income progress is pushed by the necessity for bigger entry traces to assist increased DIA port sizes, whilst we assume extra DIA is obtainable on-net and thus with out an extra entry line.
- SD-WAN Development: All SD-WAN service varieties are growing in income share attributable to increased port/circuit sizes and elevated encrypted throughput. Managed SD-WAN is especially robust, as we assume later adopting enterprises will more and more search managed providers, and others depend on extra administration for safety functions.
Regional WAN Connectivity Market Shares
Whereas U.S. & Canada had been barely behind East Asia in 2025, we mission the area will outpace East Asia by 2030. Most different areas stay comparatively flat as the expansion in DIA, SD-WAN, and broadband offsets the lack of MPLS income. Areas with increased demand for very giant ports will see extra vital progress in comparison with these with smaller port dimension demand. That is even if for all community connectivity merchandise (MPLS, DIA, and broadband) we assumed that costs would fall the quickest for bigger capability circuits. As capability demand grows, regardless that high-speed ports come at a unit price low cost, the upper quantity of capability means extra income than decrease pace ports at a better price per bit.
Regional Complete WAN Market Dimension Forecast: 2025-2030 (USD hundreds of thousands)
Regional Highlights:
- Development Leaders: U.S. & Canada and Western Europe are set to develop their income share largely because of the demand for bigger DIA port sizes.
- East Asia Contraction: East Asia is predicted to fall barely in complete income. That is probably influenced by the dominance of China and a prevalence of decrease port speeds and fewer excessive capability upgrades.
- MPLS to DIA Transition: In lots of areas, precise revenues might fall due to the top of reliance on high-priced MPLS and the adoption of DIA and broadband, which supply a lower cost per Mbps. As the worth delta between MPLS and DIA varies globally, the lack of MPLS could also be felt extra in sure areas.
Regional Complete WAN Market Dimension Distribution Forecast: 2025-2030
Regional Income Shares:
- Developed Market Development: Regardless of already low costs and excessive competitors, our mannequin predicts that the share of world WAN income for the U.S. & Canada and Western Europe will develop barely. Once more, that is almost definitely attributable to robust bandwidth demand progress.
- East Asia Shedding Share: We’d have anticipated China to develop extra, however depressed bandwidth demand there in comparison with different areas because of the excessive costs and the trio-polistic market, are prone to lower income over time. Our mannequin retains the variety of websites static, so maybe this assumption is much less true in China and actuality may overcome that depressed bandwidth.
- Lengthy Tail Areas: As within the annual mannequin, the remainder of the world are a protracted tail of comparatively small contributions to international WAN income. Most are flat or barely declining. Once more, areas with significantly costly service are prone to shrink in income or income share attributable to depressed bandwidth demand progress.
Regional WAN Connectivity Market Sizes by Product
MPLS Regional Shares
Our mannequin initiatives that international annual income for MPLS will fall from $130 billion to $57 billion. Whereas we assumed international MPLS use is declining from 45% of websites in 2025 to only 18% in 2030, we assumed port speeds for the remaining MPLS ports will enhance, although not as aggressively as DIA. Our assumptions about variations in geographic reliance on MPLS didn’t change. So locations with extra MPLS in 2025 like China will nonetheless have extra MPLS in 2030.
Regional MPLS Port Revenues: 2025-2030 (USD hundreds of thousands)
- Income Shifts: U.S. & Canada and Western Europe will see giant income drops for MPLS, however their total contribution to the MPLS market stays regular.
- Excessive-Price Markets: In East Asia (particularly China) and Oceania, the proportion contribution to the worldwide MPLS market truly will increase barely as a result of high-speed ports stay very costly in these areas.
DIA Regional Shares
DIA income is growing from $99 billion to $142 billion as demand grows from 65% of websites to 83% within the common enterprise community. It will supplant a lot of the misplaced MPLS income and make a big contribution to conserving international WAN revenues comparatively regular in the course of the decline of MPLS.
Regional DIA Port Revenues: 2025-2030 (USD hundreds of thousands)
- Main Development: Our mannequin has the U.S. & Canada, Western Europe, and Oceania seeing vital DIA income progress, even if we assume the best value stress for DIA in these areas on the bigger port sizes.
- Port Dimension Affect: East Asia grows its DIA income, however its share contribution to the worldwide complete shrinks as a result of DIA port sizes are typically smaller in China in comparison with the U.S. or Europe.
- Smaller Areas Contract: Some smaller areas truly see a lower in DIA income probably attributable to having comparatively much less demand for bigger ports, so regardless of a rise in websites working DIA, value declines outweigh extra ports.
Entry Regional Shares
World income for native entry is mainly flat within the mannequin. We assume no change to entry costs as it’s not topic to the traditional community value declines. Entry costs change over time, however not within the predictable downward course we see within the extra aggressive and standardized community providers market. Regardless of the lack of many MPLS loops, large-capacity loops connecting to off-net DIA are prone to choose up the income slack. Although we assumed that extra DIA can be obtainable on-net by 2030, a majority continues to be off-net and that is sufficient, together with the transfer towards increased bandwidths, to maintain native entry income from falling.
Regional Entry Revenues: 2025-2030 (USD hundreds of thousands)
- Entry Income Flat: World entry income is flat at roughly $185–$186 billion. Whereas fewer loops are wanted for MPLS, the transfer towards increased port sizes for each remaining MPLS and new DIA ports compensates for that loss.
Broadband Regional Shares
We decreased broadband costs, however solely very barely, with decrease capacities seeing little to no change and better capacities typically round 0.5% to 1% annual declines. It’s because broadband is already so cheap that there’s little room for downward stress year-on-year. Whereas costs do expertise some stress at increased speeds, they don’t decline at regular charges like we are inclined to see with community providers. Many enterprises favor DIA to broadband, as a result of they like an uncontended service with SLAs, and since best-efforts broadband in lots of markets can have center mile and different reliability points. Nevertheless, the place high quality broadband is obtainable, the worth factors will be engaging. We assume broadband will stay a secondary or backup service for many websites, however nonetheless develop as enterprises go away behind MPLS. In markets with strong upstream connections and FTTx it might turn out to be extra frequent whilst main connections.
Regional Broadband Port Revenues: 2025-2030 (USD hundreds of thousands)
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- Broadband: We assume broadband will develop from 35% of websites in 2025 to 47% in 2030. Nevertheless, attributable to its very low value factors, it stays a small contributor to the worldwide market, rising from $4.6 billion to $6 billion.
- Main Areas’ Share is Flat: The foremost areas, U.S. & Canada, Western Europe, and East Asia, are comparatively flat by way of share contribution to the worldwide broadband market. These areas are the place most of that income progress comes from, however since costs and circuit speeds are far more uniform globally than community providers, their contributions don’t change a lot.
- Smaller Areas Lose Share: As with different merchandise, some smaller and costlier areas contract in income share as a result of we assumed prospects received’t transfer as much as a lot bigger bandwidths.
SD-WAN Regional Shares
We didn’t modify SD-WAN costs, each as a result of we now have not traditionally seen predictable value declines as we do in community providers, and likewise as a result of the market has consolidated drastically. The few remaining gamers are probably to have the ability to maintain costs regular (or doubtlessly even elevate them). We assume that the transition to SD-WAN will proceed by means of the last decade and enhance from 45% of websites on common to 76% by 2030. As such, international SD-WAN income is projected to develop from $23 billion to $42 billion.
Regional SD-WAN Port Revenues: 2025-2030 (USD hundreds of thousands)
- Stability: Income elevated throughout all areas, however in fact the foremost areas noticed the most important absolute progress by far.
- East Asian decline: Contribution of East Asia shrank a bit probably attributable to much less aggressive bandwidth progress.
- Concentrated Income: U.S. & Canada and Western Europe are anticipated to contribute extra to the worldwide totals by 2030 attributable to excessive bandwidth and encrypted throughput necessities.
Nation WAN Connectivity Market Sizes: 2025-2030
The impression of WAN transformation is exclusive to every nation’s relative stage of bandwidth demand, aggressive panorama, and pricing construction. Key components that went into figuring out income shares within the mannequin had been beginning bandwidth demand and regional demand progress, beginning costs and regional value declines, and product combine shifts away from costly MPLS towards DIA.
Nation WAN Connectivity Market Share: 2025-2030
Nation Observations:
- Prime Tier Stability: The USA and China are anticipated to stay the highest two markets globally. Australia stays in third place attributable to excessive bandwidth demand and better prices stemming from its geographic isolation.
- India’s Decline: India is projected to fall 4 locations as its excessive prices result in decrease bandwidth demand in comparison with different nations transferring towards higher-revenue giant ports with decrease unit prices.
- Center East Slips: The most important drops in rating happen within the Center East, with Saudi Arabia falling six locations and the UAE falling eight. That is probably because of the persistence of excessive costs resulting in decrease demand for high-revenue producing bigger ports. At the same time as circuit sizes develop globally, these smaller ports will likely be outpaced in income by the very giant ports discovered in additional aggressive areas.
How We Forecast the WAN Market
Our predictive mannequin used our 2025 WAN Market Dimension annual mannequin because the baseline and drew our assumptions ahead 5 years to 2030 primarily based on costs we now have collected for 20 years, enterprise demand traits we now have collected since 2018, and our experiences benchmarking enterprise networks since 2013. The important thing assumptions that influenced the outcomes are:
- Product combine: the proportion of websites that will likely be utilizing MPLS, DIA, broadband, and SD-WAN. We assumed that MPLS use will proceed to say no whereas DIA, broadband, and SD-WAN use will enhance.
- Port and Circuit sizes: The share of websites that can fall into the port and circuit sizes for which we acquire costs throughout all merchandise. We assumed that port/circuit sizes would enhance, and we diversified this enhance by product, with DIA growing essentially the most.
- MPLS backup methods: As MPLS utilization decreases and SD-WAN adoption ramps up, we assume that almost all of the remaining MPLS service will likely be with out lively backups, as DIA or broadband typically complement the service.
- DIA on-net entry: The share of websites which have “on-net” DIA that didn’t want an extra entry line. We assumed that as ISPs broaden networks, extra DIA websites will likely be on-net.
- SD-WAN bandwidth ranges: The common complete SD-WAN encrypted throughput we count on to see by website throughout all connectivity merchandise. We assume that as MPLS, DIA, and broadband circuit sizes enhance, the encrypted throughput quantities going by means of SD-WAN gadgets/service will enhance accordingly.
- SD-WAN administration ranges: The share of SD-WAN websites falling inside unmanaged, fundamental managed, and premium managed providers—the three pricing tiers we acquire. We assumed that as SD-WAN adoption strikes to later adopters, managed providers will turn out to be extra in style, because the early adopters usually tend to need extra management. We additionally assumed that as SD-WAN is more and more a safety expertise, self administration will turn out to be much less frequent.
- Community service costs: We made assumptions in regards to the costs for every service and the way they may change over time. On this run, we assumed a slight lower in costs globally. We adjusted the proportion annual lower primarily based on product, subregion, and port/circuit sizes, and our assumed annual decreases ranged from 0-5%. We assume DIA would have essentially the most aggressive value declines, adopted by MPLS, with the least stress for broadband. For all three merchandise, we assumed costlier giant circuits can be beneath barely extra value stress. We didn’t deflate SD-WAN or native entry costs in any respect, as a result of market dynamics there usually tend to result in value stability.
Assumed Constants
We additionally assumed sure components will probably keep considerably the identical over the following 5 years, or is not going to impression international income:
- We assumed international website counts for enterprises with no less than 1,000 staff would keep the identical, as some might develop, others shrink, some get acquired and others are absorbed.
- Geographic combine—the proportion of websites in every area or nation—would keep considerably the identical.
- Native entry distances—share of websites inside every entry distance vary by nation—would keep the identical.
We then ran every annual set of assumptions by means of the identical mannequin used for the 2025 annual report, with variables adjusted accordingly. This evaluation is targeted fully on the median-median mannequin run that we used for many of our evaluation within the annual report in our Cloud and WAN Analysis Service.
Universe of Enterprise Networks
As within the 2025 annual mannequin, we assumed there are 35,000 international enterprises with 1,000 or extra staff. This leads to roughly 13,000,000 international WAN websites to attach throughout 231 nations or political/geographical models within the median-median mannequin.
World WAN Market Outlook
Predicting the way forward for WAN income is advanced, however present information suggests a slight decline within the WAN connectivity market by means of 2030. Whereas total income stays comparatively secure, a large transition is underway as enterprises transfer away from MPLS—lengthy the market’s main income driver—in favor of cloud-friendly, decentralized options like SD-WAN and DIA.
Key Takeaways:
- Bandwidth as a Income Offset: Though DIA affords a decrease price per bit, surging bandwidth demand for cloud providers, video, and doubtlessly AI is predicted to offset a lot of the income misplaced from declining MPLS circuits.
- Secure Native Entry: Regardless of the lack of MPLS loops, the entry market stays secure because the transition to higher-bandwidth DIA ports requires bigger, higher-capacity connections.
- Strategic Pivot for Carriers: Recognizing that pure connectivity is now not a high-growth space, carriers are more and more shifting their focus towards MSP providers, AIOps, and transferring “up the stack” to seize new income streams.
Except AI adoption or different rising applied sciences radically alter present traits, this mannequin represents a believable trajectory for a market present process basic structural change.
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The entire information on this WAN market dimension forecast got here from our Cloud and WAN Analysis Service platform. Entry essentially the most full, unbiased international telecom information and evaluation from TeleGeography specialists. See a video tour of the platform and be taught extra right here.
