Jeff Heynen, vp at Dell’Oro Group, informed RCR Wi-fi Information that XGS-PON will function the first know-how by means of no less than 2030 for mass-market residential deployments
In sum – what to know:
Broadband capex peaks in 2028 – Whole broadband entry gear income is forecast to succeed in $18.8 billion earlier than flattening, reflecting cautious operator funding.
XGS-PON stays dominant – Slower consumption progress is pushing large-scale 50 Gbps PON deployments additional out, conserving XGS-PON as the primary fiber know-how this decade.
In-home connectivity drives worth – Wi-Fi 7 and superior broadband CPE stay key income contributors whilst entry community progress slows.
World spending on broadband entry gear is predicted to peak at $18.8 billion in 2028, in line with a latest forecast from Dell’Oro Group.
The agency initiatives the market will develop at a modest 0.3% common annual fee between 2025 and 2030, supported by ongoing DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades and continued fiber enlargement by cable and fiber operators.
The up to date outlook represents a downward revision from Dell’Oro’s July 2025 forecast, reflecting a slower-than-expected rollout of fifty Gbps PON applied sciences worldwide. In response to the report, operators are reassessing the tempo of next-generation upgrades amid slower progress in broadband utilization and mounting stress on margins.
“We diminished our forecasts for 50 Gbps PON deployments largely due to operators’ considerations round slowing common consumption, together with the necessity to preserve revenue ranges in more and more aggressive markets,” Jeff Heynen, vp at Dell’Oro Group, stated in a launch. “Fiber community expansions and subscriber progress will proceed to be priorities, however so will the requirement that broadband providers ship worth.”
Inside the entry market, XGS-PON is predicted to stay the dominant fiber know-how by means of the top of the last decade, notably in North America, EMEA and the Caribbean and Latin America (CALA), whereas China continues to drive quantity by means of large-scale FTTR (fiber to the room) deployments. In the meantime, cable operators are anticipated to proceed investing in distributed entry architectures as they put together for DOCSIS 4.0, in line with the report.
Dell’Oro additionally expects mounted wi-fi entry buyer premises gear (CPE) shipments to peak within the mid-term, whereas demand for superior in-home connectivity — particularly Wi-Fi 7 — will stay a serious income driver till later within the decade.
RCR Wi-fi Information requested Heynen what particular operator considerations had been delaying large-scale rollouts of fifty Gbps PON. He stated: “Price stays a main concern. Till there are quantity deployments of the know-how, costs will stay too excessive for many operators to contemplate mass-market residential deployments, as we’ve got seen with GPON and at the moment are seeing with XGS-PON. Traditionally, mass deployments in China have helped cut back element pricing for PON gear, notably transceivers. Till we see these deployments — seemingly starting in 2027 — costs for the know-how will stay excessive. Given the extremely aggressive nature of the mounted broadband market, operators should be very conservative with their capex allocations.”
“For mass-market residential deployments, XGS-PON will function the first know-how by means of no less than 2030. There might be deployments of 25G and 50G PON, however these might be for focused, strategic deployments, akin to to supply enterprise or campus point-to-multipoint connections. China will see the primary large-scale 50G deployments, however we aren’t anticipating these to ramp till late 2027. The remainder of the world might be centered on increasing houses handed and switching off legacy copper networks, principally utilizing XGS-PON,” Heynen added.
